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Stanley Cup Final prediction

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First off, I have correctly predicted the outcomes of 11 of the 14 playoff series’ this postseason after the Conference Finals. I had Chicago over L.A., but Pittsburgh over Boston.

I don’t think anyone could have asked for a better final series than this one. Two major hockey cities, two Original Six teams. Boston and Chicago, the Bruins and Blackhawks. NBC couldn’t be happier, because the TV ratings for this series will probably be higher than any Stanley Cup Final in the past. Maybe the only person upset about this matchup is Gary Bettman, who probably would have liked it if Phoenix and Florida met in the Cup. But who cares what he wants, right? On to the prediction.

STANLEY CUP FINAL

56 vs. Boston-Bruins-Logo

The President’s Trophy-winning Blackhawks and the 4th seeded Bruins are two very similar teams, but also different at the same time. Both are tremendous defensively, but they each have their own way of scoring goals. After their incredible Game 7 victory over the Toronto Maple Leafs in the first round, Boston has been an unstoppable force in the East. The went on to defeat the Rangers in just 5 games, and now they are coming off of a sweep of the number 1 seeded Penguins in the Conference Final. A lot of people, myself included, didn’t think Crosby, Malkin, and the rest of the Penguins’ offense could be stopped. Man were we wrong. In their series with Pittsburgh, the Bruins allowed just TWO goals against. Now remember, the Penguins were the best team in the NHL at scoring goals this year, and yet they only had two in four games against the Bruins. That is a remarkable statistic for Boston. Credit Patrice Bergeron and his line, as well as Zdeno Chara and Tuukka Rask for shutting down the Penguins offense. What Boston did against Pittsburgh is what they’ll most likely do against Chicago in terms of defense. They had Patrice Bergeron’s line play against either the Crosby or Malkin line, while Zdeno Chara and Dennis Seidenberg played against the other line centered by either Crosby or Malkin. Against Chicago, they will probably have Bergeron playing the Toews line, and Chara playing the Handzus line (or vice versa). Bergeron is a Selke Trophy finalist, which is awarded each year to the best defensive forward in the NHL. Chara is constantly in the Norris Trophy discussion, although this year he is not a finalist. The bottom line here is that the Bruins, led by Bergeron and Chara, are an incredible defensive team from top to bottom. In net, Tuukka Rask has been phenomenal as well. He ranks second in GAA this postseason (behind Corey Crawford), and first in save percentage. He had two shutouts in the four games against Pittsburgh. Offensively, Boston has 6 guys with over 10 points this postseason, led by David Krejci who has 21 (most in the NHL). They have been getting contributions from everyone on offense, including their defensemen. Unlike the Blackhawks, Boston gets the majority of their goals on shots from the point, or rebounds in front of the net. The Bruins are also one of the best teams in hockey at winning faceoffs, and Chicago is not. This could be a key to any success the Bruins might have in this series.

The Blackhawks have had an interesting postseason. They knocked out the Wild in 5 games in the first round, but never really played with a playoff-like intensity. In the second round, they fell into a 3-1 hole against Detroit after the first 4 games. It was at this point that the Hawks finally started to play like it was the playoffs. They won 3 straight against the Wings to advance to the Conference Final, and rolled over the Kings in 5 games to reach the Stanley Cup Final. I thought that the Blackhawks would have had a lot more trouble against the Kings than they really did. The Kings were a big, physical, and fast team that liked to throw their weight around. They were the exact type of team that the Hawks have had trouble against all season. However, all that went out the door in this series, and the Blackhawks never seemed fazed by L.A.’s physicality. Corey Crawford was the MVP of this series. He came up with a number of massive saves, especially in the two overtimes of Game 5. Prior to the Conference Final, all anyone was talking about was Jonathan Quick and how amazing he was playing. Now, I think Crawford is beginning to get the respect that he deserves. He is first in the NHL in GAA this postseason, and is second in save percentage. Defensively, ever since Joel Quenneville reunited Keith and Seabrook, the Blackhawks have been really good. Niklas Hjalmarsson had arguably his best playoff series of his career against the Kings, and the Hawks will need him to continue playing well against Boston. I said before the Conference Final that the Hjalmarsson-Oduya pairing would be a key component of the Blackhawks-Kings series, and I was right. Jonathan Toews, a Selke finalist, and Marian Hossa are two of the best defensive forwards in the game and have the ability to really disrupt any team’s offense. Offensively, the Blackhawks have really turned it up over the last 4-5 games. They chased Jonathan Quick in Game 2, and put up 14 goals over 5 games against L.A. Bryan Bickell has arguably been the Hawks’ MVP this postseason, as he has 8 goals and 5 assists. Patrick Kane hadn’t done much prior to Game 4 of last series, but scored 4 goals in the final two games, including a hat trick and the winning goal in Game 5. If he stays hot for the Hawks, look out. Jonathan Toews has played a lot better lately even without lighting the lamp. Hossa and Sharp continue to get great chances and are converting more often than not.

This is going to be an excellent series. While Boston was able to completely shut down Crosby and Malkin, I am not so sure they can do that again against the Blackhawks’ top guys. Chicago has 2 all-star caliber lines, and a third and fourth line that can be dangerous as well. The stretch pass that the Blackhawks use is unlike anything Boston has tried to defend in the East this year, and they will need to respect that in this series, which will open up other opportunities for the Hawks. Also, the speed of Chicago on the backcheck and forecheck is better than any speed the Bruins have seen so far. The Blackhawks are possibly the fastest team in hockey, and they know how to use that to their advantage. Having said that, this series will be one for the ages.

-Chicago wins series, 4-3.

NHL Conference Finals predictions

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In my last set of predictions, I correctly predicted the winner of each second round series. I had the Penguins winning in 7, the Bruins in 6, the Blackhawks in 6, and the Kings in 7. That improves my “record” of predicting series outcomes to 10-2 this postseason, which I won’t complain about. As it turns out, the remaining 4 teams in the playoffs are the last 4 teams to win the Stanley Cup. The Penguins won it in ’09, the Hawks in ’10, the Bruins in ’11, and the Kings in ’12. If the NHL could have its dream pair of conference finals’ (in terms of TV ratings), it would probably look something like the way it does now.

So with that, here are my conference finals’ predictions.

Western Conference Finals

1-5 Matchup:

56 vs. third_jersey_logo

Season series: Blackhawks 2-1-0 against the Kings.

It took both of these teams seven games to advance to the Western Conference Finals, but they are both more than deserving of being here. The Sharks and Red Wings both played fantastic in the second round, but in the end, it wasn’t enough. The Kings are back in the WCF’s for the second year in a row, and are now looking to advance to their second consecutive Stanley Cup Final. Much like last year, Jonathan Quick has become the story of the L.A. Kings. He has played unbelievably, to say the least, and is on his way to another Conn Smythe if the Kings win the Cup. In their series with the Sharks, L.A. failed to win a game on the road, but won all 4 at home. Over the last 2 postseasons, no one has been even close to being as successful on home ice as the Kings. While I wouldn’t label them as a bad road team, they are definitely a different team when not on home ice. Obviously in this series, they will not have the home ice advantage, which may or may not hurt them based on their track record. I said before the playoffs started that it would be interesting to see what type of goal scoring the Kings would get in this postseason. Through two rounds,  their leading point producer, Mike Richards, has only 10 points in 13 games. Jeff Carter is second on the team with just 8 points. To compare, the Blackhawks have 4 guys with at least 9 points, and two with 11. In this series with the Hawks, the Kings need to use their size to their advantage. They are one of the heaviest teams in the league in terms of weight per player, and they have the ability to be one of the best hitting/checking teams in hockey. That style of play has worked well against the Blackhawks all season long, which bodes well for L.A. In the regular season, the Blackhawks ranked second in the league in G/G. This postseason, L.A. ranks first in GA/G, thanks in large part to Jonathan Quick. They will need this trend and the play of Quick to continue in this series.

As for Chicago, it would appear that they have finally “arrived” to the playoffs. Through about the first 9 games or so of this postseason, they were still stuck in regular season mode. As a result, they fell into a 3-1 hole against the Red Wings before turning things around in Game 5. They are currently riding a 3-game winning streak into this series after pulling off one of the best comebacks in franchise postseason history against Detroit. Corey Crawford has been pretty darn good for the Blackhawks this postseason and has been overlooked by many when discussing the Hawks. He single-handedly kept the Blackhawks in almost every game against Detroit. If it wasn’t for their random inability to score goals, they could have won that series in 5 games because of Crawford. He will need to keep that up this round because odds are the Blackhawks aren’t going to be scoring a whole lot on Quick. In Game 5, Joel Quenneville reunited the defensive pairings of Keith-Seabrook, Oduya-Hjalmarsson, and Rozsival-Leddy. Those were the pairings for more than half the regular season and during their 24-game point streak. As a result, the Blackhawks won the last 3 games against Detroit to advance. Keith and Seabrook are pretty safe bets to play well this series, but I believe that the Oduya-Hjalmarsson pairing will be a big key to the Blackhawks’ success. If they play well, the Blackhawks normally win games. Depth will be another big factor for the Hawks. They have arguably the deepest team in hockey, which was a big reason for their win over Detroit. If the top 2 lines for Chicago can be effective offensively (the Toews line was quite against Detroit), then the third and fourth lines are what could put them over the top against L.A. The absolute biggest concern for the Blackhawks in this series is their lack of physicality. The Kings are going to take runs at any Blackhawk they can, especially the stars, and the Hawks will need to respond accordingly. Whether that means successfully battling through it or hitting back, they will need to do something if they want to win. This should be a fantastic series.

-Chicago wins series, 4-3.

Eastern Conference Finals

1-4 Matchup:

2518158277_cf0b185de3 vs. Boston-Bruins-Logo

Season series: Penguins 3-0-0 against the Bruins.

This is the matchup that I really wanted to see in the Eastern Conference Finals. Both of these teams were near the top of the league throughout the whole regular season, and now they will play for a birth to the Stanley Cup Finals. The Bruins needed a dramatic seventh game victory over Toronto to advance to the second round, but only needed 5 games to oust the Rangers. They looked very, very good against New York and seem to be playing their best hockey of the year right now. Tuukka Rask has been good for Boston with a 2.22 GAA and a .928 save percentage, but not great. He gave up some weak goals through the first two rounds, but he cannot afford to do that again against Pittsburgh. The Penguins will get plenty of tough goals as it is, so Boston and Tuukka Rask cannot afford any soft goals-against. Defensively, the Bruins are one of the best teams in hockey. They are very deep on the blue line, especially with Seidenberg and Ference coming back, and their forwards are some of the best defensive forwards in the game. Patrice Bergeron, a Selke Trophy finalist, will need to shut down either the Malkin or Crosby line of Pittsburgh in this series. Offensively, David Krejci leads the league in points this postseason with 17. Nathan Horton currently ranks fifth in points, while Zdeno Chara ranks 13th, and that’s as a defenseman. As a team, they rank second behind Pittsburgh in G/G this postseason. Much like Chicago, one of Boston’s biggest strengths is their depth. Their third and fourth lines will need to produce against Pittsburgh for them to win this series.

The Penguins rolled through Ottawa in the second round without much of a problem. In the second round alone, Pittsburgh scored 22 goals. That’s pretty ridiculous. Malkin, Letang, and Crosby rank second, third, and fourth respectively in points this postseason, which is rather impressive. Offensively, the Penguins need to keep doing what they’ve been doing. There’s not much else to say about that area of their game. Defensively, they could be better. Of the 4 teams remaining in the playoffs, the Penguins rank last in GA/G. Tomas Vokoun, however, has stepped up big time in relief of Marc Andre Fleury. While he hasn’t been perfect, Vokoun has gotten the job done. When playing on a team that scores as many goals as the Penguins, a goalie can afford to not be perfect every game. However, that is no excuse to play bad in this series. One of the biggest strengths for Pittsburgh in these playoffs has been their powerplay. They rank first in PP percentage at 28.3 percent. I would not count on them to score as many power play goals against Boston, which means that their G/G could go down in this series (it will be tough for them to score 22 goals again). In all honesty, I don’t know what more there is to say about the Penguins. They’re playing the best hockey of any team this postseason and are showing no signs of slowing down. Having said that, I don’t think this will be another quick series.

-Pittsburgh wins series, 4-3.

I have both series’ going 7 games, which is a testament to how good the final four teams are. This should be an epic round, and I can’t wait for it to begin.

Game 7

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169140836_slideGame 7, arguably the two best words in professional sports. Tonight, the Blackhawks and Red Wings will conclude their final playoff series as conference opponents in what only seems like a fitting way, Game 7. Many people, myself included, didn’t think that this series would ever reach this point after Detroit took a commanding 3-1 series lead with their Game 4 victory, but here we are.

Let’s take a quick look back at the first 6 games of this series:

Game 1

The Blackhawks dominated Game 1 and won by a final score of 4-1. They forchecked as well as they have all year long and pretty much did whatever they wanted to against the Wings. Whether it was tired legs for Detroit after their series with Anaheim or simply a lack of energy, they looked awful and the Hawks looked phenomenal.

Game 2

It was as though there was a role reversal in this game. The Blackhawks looked like the Red Wings of Game 1, and the Wings looked like the Blackhawks. Detroit dominated much of the game and made the Blackhawks look like they were skating in mud the whole game. The Wings controlled the puck for much of the game and never let the Hawks get anything going. Detroit won 4-1.

Game 3

Back on their home ice, the Wings again were the much better team in Game 3. They controlled most of the first two periods and jumped out to a 2-0 lead heading into the third. After a Patrick Kane breakaway goal, Andrew Shaw scored what many thought was the tying goal, but the referees ruled goalie interference and the goal was taken away. Detroit would score one more time in the third and won the game 3-1.

Game 4

The Blackhawks actually played well in this game. They played with a major sense of urgency and desperation, but it just wasn’t enough. Corey Crawford held the Wings to just 1 goal (they would add an empty netter), but Jimmy Howard shut out the Hawks. This was the first time all season that the Blackhawks had been shutout. The final was 2-0.

Game 5

The Blackhawks knew they had to win or they were done, and that’s just how they played. Surprisingly, they scored 2 power play goals, and one of which was by Jonathan Toews (his first goal of the playoffs). Similar to Game 1, the Blackhawks controlled almost the entire game and won 4-1.

Game 6

The Hawks started off with a strong start in this game and scored another power play goal about 5 minutes into the game. Detroit would answer back with the next two goals, one of which was a very soft goal allowed by Crawford. Then the third period happened. Michal Handzus got an early goal to tie the game in the third, and this propelled the Hawks to a dominating period. Bryan Bickell would score the go-ahead goal just minutes later, and Michael Frolik would score on a penalty shot to give the Hawks a 4-2 lead. Detroit scored late in the period, but that was it. Hawks won 4-3.

And that brings us to tonight’s Game 7. Both teams now have their backs against the wall knowing that it’s win or go home. I would expect the Blackhawks to continue playing with the momentum, but Detroit isn’t going to just lay their sticks down either. It will be interesting to see if Mike Babcock switches up his lines at all tonight, for instance by putting Datsyuk and Zetterberg on the same line.

Here are my keys to a Blackhawks victory in tonight’s game:

  • The Blackhawks second line. Hossa, Handzus, and Bickell all scored a goal in Game 6, and this line has provided a major advantage for the Hawks over the last 2 games. Detroit has yet to find an answer for stopping this line, and if they can’t stop them again tonight, they could be in trouble.
  • Corey Crawford. While Crawford has played pretty well all postseason, he has still given up some soft goals from time to time. I thought for sure that the bad goal he allowed in Game 6 would cost them the series. He needs to eliminate any bad goals from being scored on him tonight and come up with some big saves.
  • Oduya/Hjalmarsson. When this pairing plays well, the Hawks generally win. Now that Quenneville reunited these two as well as Keith and Seabrook, the defense has played a lot better. I am confident that Keith and Seabrook will be big again tonight, but Oduya and Hjalmarsson will be key. If they can shut down the Wings forwards, I like the Blackhawks’ chances.
  • Home ice. I honestly believe that playing on their home ice will be a huge plus for the 169490335_slideHawks. They have played their best games this postseason at home, and in this series in particular. Detroit has looked like a completely different team on the road in this series (despite Game 2). The United Center will be deafening tonight, which the Blackhawks have stated they will feed off of.

I don’t think that tonight will be like Games 1 and 5 in which the Hawks dominated on home ice, but I do believe they will be the better team tonight. Jonathan Toews has been a different player over the last 2 games, and if he steps up in a big way tonight like he did 2 years ago in Game 7 against Vancouver, the Wings will be in trouble.

If you are unsure how to handle a Game 7, you’re not alone. Here’s some tips:

-Watch the game where you feel most comfortable, whether that’s at home, in a bar, or even at the game. Watch it where you aren’t afraid to act like a 4 year old, make loud noises, or voice some profanity.

-If you’re like me, you’ll get so nervous to where you can’t eat for hours before or after the game. Don’t freak out, it’s normal.

-Have something to help you through the game. I like chewing sunflower seeds just to help my nerves. You may choose something else, but do something to help you along.

-DO NOT watch the game with anyone who isn’t a diehard fan. There is nothing worse than watching a big game with someone who wants to talk the whole time or focus on other things.

Puck drops in 5 hours. I hope we all make it through this night with out too much difficulty. Just remember, you’re not the only one who will be freaking out the whole game. All of Chicago and Detroit will be as well.

Go Hawks!

Blackhawks now in a hole

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169140836_slideFor the first time this season, the Blackhawks find themselves facing some major adversity. This is something that they, nor us fans are really used to. After their 24-game point streak to start the season, the Hawks were pretty much assured a playoff spot without much doubt. Not once this year have they had to play a very meaningful game, until now. Sure, they played a 5-game series against the Wild in the first round, but not once did Minnesota actually put the Blackhawks in a hole, or threaten their Stanley Cup hopes.

With their Game 3 loss to Detroit, the Blackhawks are now down 2-1 in their series with the Wings, with Game 4 scheduled for Thursday night. Their loss in Game 3 was definitely a tough one to swallow after Andrew Shaw had a goal taken away from him early in the third period that would have tied the game at 2 apiece. According to the referee who made the call, Andrew Shaw “interfered” with Jimmy Howard and did not allow Howard a fair chance at making the save. Replay after replay of this play showed that there was absolutely no interference on Shaw’s part, and the Blackhawks got blatantly screwed. This call changed the entire complexion of the third period and gave all the momentum back to Detroit. Still, this is no excuse for losing the game, although it didn’t help.

In Game 1, the Blackhawks used their speed to their advantage and basically skated circles around each Red Wing player on the ice. They forchecked as well as they have all year long and had numerous extended offensive zone shifts. To make it simple, the Blackhawks dominated the first game of this series.

Games 2 and 3, however, were quite different. In Game 2, the Wings were the team with livelier legs and more energy, and at times they were skating circles around the Hawks. It looked as though Detroit was playing a Game 7, and the Blackhawks were playing a regular season game. Game 3 was better for the Hawks, but it still took them 2 periods and a 2-goal deficit to really get going. Even then, they just couldn’t get the job done. They eclipsed the 40-shot mark, which is always good, but ran into a hot goalie and determined defense while doing so.

Detroit is forcing the Hawks to play a dump and chase type game, and they have not allowed the Blackhawks to utilize their speed since Game 1. Along with that, the Wings are playing much more physical than the Wild ever did in round 1, and that seems to be bothering the Hawks. Almost every time this year that a team has tried to play a physical game against Chicago, the Blackhawks have lost. They are not equipped to handle such physical pressure. They get thrown off their game and end up playing in what seems like a “scramble-mode.”

The Blackhawks have been most successful in this series when they have been able to run their cycle in the offensive zone and make clean, quick passes. When they can generate their offense from the blue line and have their defensemen be effective with the duncan-keithpuck in the offensive zone, that is when the Blackhawks’ offense is at its best. Against Detroit, this is more of what they are going to need to do from here on out. The Wings are not letting the Hawks get many two on one/three on two rushes. They are forcing the Hawks to chip the puck in behind Jimmy Howard and go retrieve it. This is why it is imperative for them to get their d-men involved along the blue line and help spread the Wings’ defense out to create more space in the passing lanes.

For the first time this year, the Blackhawks are facing a must-win game in Game 4. They cannot afford to go down 3-1 against Detroit. The Hawks need to be smart and disciplined from start to finish next game and beat the Wings between the whistles. Andrew Shaw cannot continue to take penalties after the whistle has blown, and Bryan Bickell cannot let his emotions get the best of him with Dan Cleary. Yes, the Blackhawks PK has been perfect this postseason, but you can’t keep poking the bear by taking bad penalties.

A number of people didn’t take Joel Quenneville or Jonathan Toews too seriously last round when they both said that the Blackhawks need to play with more energy and intensity. See what happens when you take a round off? Now the Hawks are struggling to find that playoff intensity that is needed to win postseason games, and it is costing them.

Expect to see a desperate and determined Blackhawks team in Game 4. If you don’t, then they’ve got a big problem and could be on the golf course next week sometime.

NHL Eastern Conference Semifinals predictions

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So as it turns out after last night’s pair of Game 7’s, I went 6-2 in predicting the outcomes of the first round. I’m pretty proud of myself to be honest with you. What a comeback by the Bruins! I’ve never seen anything like that in hockey. The city of Toronto will be in mourning for the next month, that’s for sure.

Alright, the predictions.

1-7 Matchup:

2518158277_cf0b185de3 vs. 2bkf2l3xyxi5p0cavbj8

Season series: Penguins 3-0-0 against Senators.

Next to the Sharks, I think the Senators were by far the most impressive team in the first round. Maybe even more impressive than San Jose, but that’s debatable. Ottawa survived the intensity of their series with the Canadiens and flat out dominated them between fights. Goal scoring was not an issue in that first round for the Sens, as they averaged exactly 4 goals per game (good for second behind Pittsburgh). Everyone was seemingly producing and tallying points for Ottawa. Meanwhile, Craig Anderson played a phenomenal series in net and shut down the Montreal offense. He has been one of the most underrated goalies in the NHL in recent years, and now he is finally starting to get some respect. This guys is for real. For Ottawa to beat Pittsburgh, Anderson is going to need to be great again. The Penguins have arguably the league’s most potent offense, and they rely on that offense to win them games. If the Senators can play solid defense and get good goaltending, we might have ourselves an upset.

As for the Penguins, they have to be a little concerned after the way they performed against the Islanders in the first round. Sure, they won the series without going to a 7th game, but a lot of people feel that series should have been over with a lot sooner. I’d say that in 3 or maybe even 4 of those games against the Islanders, New York dominated the play. The fact that Pittsburgh still came away with a victory in that series is a credit to their depth and talent. However, that series also exposed some weaknesses of the Penguins. Marc Andre Fleury is no longer their starting goalie after yet another bad first round performance. Thomas Vokoun is their guy in goal now, and they’ll need him to be solid from here on out. Over his career, Vokoun has been a pretty streaky goalie, so we’ll just have to see which side of him shows up in this series. Also, Pittsburgh’s defense is very beatable. The Islanders proved this. For Pittsburgh to win this series, their blue liners are going to need to be a lot better than they were in round one. Ottawa has one of the hottest offenses right now, and that could be an issue for Pittsburgh’s defense.

-Pittsburgh wins series, 4-3.

4-6 Matchup:

Boston-Bruins-Logo vs. 144

 

Season series: Rangers 2-1-0 against Bruins.

It took 7 games for both of these teams to advance to the second round, and thankfully for us NHL fans, we have our second series consisting of two Original 6 teams (the other being Chicago-Detroit). Incredibly, this is the first postseason meeting between these two teams since the mid ’70’s. In their first round series with Washington, New York got great goaltending from Henrik Lundqvist, and timely scoring from a number of players. Derick Brassard (acquired from Columbus at the deadline) has been huge for New York and was a key component to their first round victory. Other than him, however, no Rangers forwards were really that great in the first round. They ranked 10th in goals per game after round one, and that needs to improve. They will be going against a much better defense in the Boston Bruins in the second round. To me, the biggest question with New York is their scoring. They have the weapons to be a good offensive team, but they just haven’t produced like one all year long. They absolutely have to be better against Boston. One thing going for the Rangers, however, is the fact that they have Henrik Lundqvist on their side. He can single-handedly win any series.

The Bruins are lucky to still be alive right now. After trailing 4-1 midway through the third period of their Game 7 against Toronto, it looked for sure like the Leafs would pull of the upset. However, Boston never gave up and willed their way back into the game, scoring 2 goals with the goalie pulled in the final minute and a half of regulation time to tie it. Patrice Bergeron scored the eventual game winner in overtime to send the TD Garden into a frenzy. Now, that they’re in the second round, the Bruins need to wake up and play their game. They were ugly, slow, and downright sloppy at times against Toronto. That can’ happen anymore. Tuukka Rask played alright in the first round, but we all know he can be better. He’ll need to be. Offensively, Boston ranked 5th in goals per game in the first round, which isn’t bad. On the flip side, they ranked 9th in goals against. That needs to be better. All year long, the Bruins have prided themselves on their defense and goaltending. Those two areas need to improve for them to advance any further in these playoffs. One advantage that they have over New York is experience. Boston is just 2 years removed from winning the Stanley Cup, and they still have a number of players from that team on their roster. Those guys that have won the Cup need to step up and lead the team.

-Boston wins series, 4-2.

NHL Western Conference Semifinals predictions

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Hard to believe that the first round is already over, at least in the West. There are two Game 7’s tonight in the East between the Bruins and Maple Leafs, and the Rangers and Capitals. As it turns out, I did pretty well with my predictions for the first round of the series’ that have ended. In the West, I said that the Blackhawks would beat the Wild in 5 games, and they did. I had the Kings beating St. Louis in 6, and they did that as well. I thought Ottawa would win their series in 6 games, but they won it in 5 instead. The Islanders gave the Penguins a run for their money, but Pittsburgh won that one in 6 games, while I thought they’d win it in 5. The Sharks-Canucks series was pretty shocking to everyone I think. I had Vancouver in 7. As for the Duck-Wings series, I said the Ducks would win that in 6. So overall, I went 4 and 2 in predicting the series’ that are finished.

Now, let’s get to our second round predictions.

1-7 Matchup:

56 vs. Detroit-Red-Wings-Logo

Season series: Blackhawks 4-0-0 against Red Wings.

I think it’s pretty fitting for these two rivals to have one last playoff series against each other before the Wings move to the Eastern Conference. Most people had Anaheim knocking Detroit out in the first round, but the Wings were able to pull off the upset. I think it’s safe to say that Detroit is playing their best hockey of the season right now, and Jimmy Howard is at the top of his game. The top guys of the Wings (Zetterberg and Datsyuk) really stepped up in the first round and were a big reason as to why the upset was made. While Jimmy Howard is certainly a force between the pipes, the Wings’ defense is what gives me doubts about this team. There isn’t a really great player on their blue line, and they don’t have a whole lot of depth there either. The defense and Jimmy Howard are really going to need to be outstanding in this series for the Wings to have a chance.

The Blackhawks are coming off of a pretty interesting first round victory over the Minnesota Wild. While the Hawks did win that series in just 5 games, the 8th seeded Wild gave the Blackhawks some problems. They clogged the neutral zone, limited the passing lanes, and forced the Hawks to play a dump-and-chase type of game. For a lot of that series, the Blackhawks looked slow and not in “playoff-mode.” Maybe they were playing down to the level of their competition, or maybe they just weren’t really revved up for that series. Whatever the case was, the Blackhawks need to step up their game and take it to a new level against the Wings. Corey Crawford, who was great in the first round, will need to continue his strong play. Dave Bolland will be back for the Hawks centering the third line, which is a good addition to the lineup. I think the speed and talent of the Blackhawks’ forwards will overwhelm the Wings’ blue liners in this series, and that will end up being the difference.

-Chicago wins series, 4-2.

5-6 Matchup:

third_jersey_logo vs. sharks_new

Season series: Kings 2-1-1 against Sharks.

I don’t think any team in the league was more impressive in the first round than the San Jose Sharks. They absolutely dominated their series against the 3rd seeded Canucks and were the first team to advance to the second round after the sweep. Antti Niemi was great in the first round, just like all year, and the Sharks’ offense was clicking on all cylinders. Defensively, the Sharks were pretty impressive as well. Dan Boyle played a great series, and the decision to put Brent Burns at a forward position proved to be a key one. The Sharks’ power play came up big all series long against Vancouver, and they’re going to need that to continue. Scoring 5 on 5 against L.A. and Jonathan Quick won’t be easy. One thing that concerns me about San Jose is the fact that they played so well in the first round. This may sound odd, but I worry that the Sharks may have played the best series that they could have, and now they can only go down hill from here on out. I don’t think that they can continue playing the way they did in round one on a consistent basis moving forward. We’ll see…

As for the Kings, they bounced back rather nicely after losing the first two games in the first round against the Blues. After those two losses, L.A. won 4 straight to win that series and eliminate St. Louis for the second year in a row. Jonathan Quick was outstanding over the final 4 games in the first round, and it appears that he may now be back to his Conn Smythe mode. If so, that’s a bad sign for San Jose. The Kings’ offense was not bad in the first round, but they did have some off-nights. This was their problem during last year’s regular season, but they turned things around for their Stanley Cup run. While I don’t think that their offense will be as inconsistent as it was during the 2011-2012 season, I am not sure that they are consistent enough to win the Cup this year. However, defense and goaltending win Stanley Cups in this league, and L.A. has both. This is a team that I can see making it to the Conference Finals and maybe even the Cup, but that’s about it. This should be a good series nonetheless.

-L.A. wins series, 4-3.

Check back in the next day for my Eastern Conference predictions.

 

Blackhawks up 3-1; Great playoffs so far

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imageWith last night’s 3-0 win over the Minnesota Wild, the Blackhawks now have a 3-1 lead in their first round series and will look to eliminate the Wild on Thursday night. For really the first time in this postseason, the Blackhawks actually played a “playoffs style” of hockey in Game 4, and it payed off. Joel Quenneville said after their Game 3 loss that he wanted to see a more “intense” team, while Jonathan Toews said he wanted to see the Hawks actually play like they were in the playoffs.

For the first three games of this series, it looked as though the Blackhawks were still playing like it was the regular season. They weren’t being physical, they weren’t playing with desperation or intensity, and they flat out weren’t playing playoff hockey. Minnesota, on the other hand, was playing playoff hockey. Especially in Game 3, they were hitting anyone in a white jersey without regrets, scoring ugly goals, and making life miserable for the Blackhawks.

In Game 4, the Blackhawks finally changed their style of play and played a playoff-type game. They still weren’t very physical, but they played a gritty hockey game and quit trying to be so “cute” with the puck. In the playoffs, you need to have a lot of traffic in front of the net and get a lot of shots on goal. You can’t afford to try and make highlight reel plays that often don’t even result in a shot on goal. I thought that the Blackhawks did a better job of getting away from that “highlight reel” stuff last night and just got pucks to the net instead, which was good.

While I was more pleased with the Hawks’ offense last night than I was in games 1 or 3, I am still very disappointed in their unwillingness to get physical. I can’t even begin to think of the number of times someone on the Hawks has had a chance to hit a Wild player into the glass, but instead pulled up short and tried to poke check imagethe puck away instead. In Game 1, Andrew Shaw put a big hit on Torrey Mitchell (who had the puck) behind the Wild net, which separated Mitchell from the puck. This led to a turnover, and Bryan Bickell scored the game winning goal on the Hawks’ ensuing possession. In Game 4, Andrew Shaw again put a big hit on Adam Falk in behind the Wild net, separated him from the puck, and Bryan Bickell scored after picking up that loose puck created by Shaw’s hit. My point is that the few times that the Hawks have decided to get physical and create turnovers off of hits along the boards, good things have happened. The Wild have been doing a lot more of this than the Blackhawks, and they have generated a ton of scoring chances by doing so. This is the playoffs, and the Hawks are refusing to get physical. If they want any chance of winning another series, they’ve got to play tougher.

Defensively, the Blackhawks’ d-men have been outstanding in this series. Game 4 was probably the best defensive game that they have played in the this series, and it led to a shutout. Not many teams have all 6 defensemen playing as well as they are for the Hawks.

Corey Crawford has looked really good so far in the first round. He has come up with a number of big saves to keep the Hawks in games, and in Game 4 recorded his second career postseason shutout (the first being in Game 5 against the Canucks in 2011).

Moving forward, the Blackhawks would obviously like to finish off the Wild in Game 5 back at the United Center. To do so, they’ll need to play with speed, physicality, and more offensive zone-time. They are much more talented than Minnesota, and they need to show that in Game 5. Often the toughest game of a series is the one in which you can eliminate your opponent. I’d expect the Wild to play their best game of the series, and the Hawks need to counter their desperation.

THE REST OF THE LEAGUE

Who would have thought that San Jose would sweep Vancouver? I had the Canucks winning in 7 games. I also said that the team with the better power play would win that series, and as it turns out, San Jose had the much better PP. Alain Vigneault has probably coached his last game behind the Canucks’ bench.

The Detroit-Anaheim series has turned into a great one. The Wings took Game 4 in overtime to tie the series at 2 apiece heading back to California. I still think the Ducks will finish this one off in 6, however.

After dropping the first 2 games in St. Louis, the defending champs won both games back in L.A. and head back to the Gateway to the West looking to make it a third straight victory. Jonathan Quick has bounced back nicely after a shaky first couple of outings in this series. I will stick with my original prediction of the Kings winning in 6 games.

Out East, the Penguins find themselves tied 2-2 with the 8th seeded Islanders heading back to Pittsburgh for Game 5. New York has looked very good at times in this series, but also pretty weak at others. Like I said in my predictions before the first round started, Marc Andre Fleury could be the weakness of the Pens. He might not even get the start in Game 5 after the way he’s played. The winner of Game 5 will win that series.

Talk about a rivalry that’s started in the playoffs…. Montreal and Ottawa are engaged in what might be the most physical, dirtiest playoff series in the last decade. That being said, Ottawa took Game 4 in overtime and now leads that series 3-1. I predicted the Sens in 6, and I’m sticking to it.

After winning the first 2 in Washington, the Capitals dropped Game 3 in New York. The Rangers will look to tie that series up tonight at MSG. Henrik Lundqvist will be the key to Game 4 in my opinion. I predicted the Rangers in 7. I’ll still say this goes to 7 games, but there might be a different winner.

Boston has looked pretty good through the first 3 games against Toronto. They regained home-ice advantage with their win in Game 3, and they’ll look to go up 3-1 tonight. I said Boston in 5, and it looks like that could be the case.

Blackhawks take Game 1 in OT

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167823962_slideIt wasn’t pretty, but a win’s a win. The Blackhawks and Wild needed overtime to decide the outcome of Game 1, and Bryan Bickell ended up scoring the big goal to win it for the Hawks by a score of 2-1. Many people, myself included, predicted that this would end up being a quick series (and it still may be), but I did not expect the Blackhawks to look so lethargic in Game 1. At times, it looked like they were skating in mud.

Maybe it was a case of the Blackhawks shaking off some rust, or maybe it was them trying to play through some playoff jitters. Whatever the case may have been, they simply did not look good for the first 2 periods of last night’s game. Their passes were off the mark, they were only getting one shot per possession, and they rarely sustained any pressure on the Minnesota defense. It was one of the sloppiest games that the Hawks have played all year.

Corey Crawford did not help anyone feel comfortable about last night’s game when he allowed a very soft goal to Cal Clutterbuck early in the first period. It was the exact type of soft goal that we got too used to seeing in last year’s playoffs. To Corey’s credit, however, he bounced back and played a great game from then on and did not allow another goal.

Marian Hossa scored on the powerplay in the second period to tie the game at 1 apiece after a beautiful feed from Patrick Kane. This had to be big for the Blackhawks’ confidence to get a powerplay goal right off the bat in the playoffs. After all, it’s not a secret that their powerplay was rather bad this season.

Late in overtime, an unbelievable bank-pass high off the glass from Johnny Oduya to Viktor  Stalberg created a 2-on-1 between Stalberg and Bickell. Stalberg retrieved the pass, pulled 167823973_slideup, and hit Bickell with a perfect pass to give him a 10-foot breakaway on Josh Harding. Bickell was able to slide the puck through Harding’s five hole to win the game and send the U.C. into a frenzy.

Many analysts on the NHL Network brought up the fact that the depth of the Blackhawks is what will win them series’ in the postseason. That is exactly how they won Game 1, with the third line getting the OT goal.

So, what to take away from Game 1:

  • Josh Harding played very well in Niklas Backstrom’s absence after not starting a game since Jan. 30. Could he be the Wild’s starter the rest of the way?
  • Ryan Suter played 41 minutes. He isn’t going to have anything left in the tank by Game 3 if that trend continues, and he’s the Wild’s only hope on the blue line.
  • Corey Crawford looked very good and came up with some huge saves late in the game and overtime.
  • This may have been the best effort that the Wild could have possibly given, yet they still couldn’t come away with a victory.
  • If you’re the Blackhawks, you have to feel confident knowing that you didn’t play well, the Wild did play well, and you still won.

I would expect to see a much different Blackhawks team come Game 2 on Friday night. The Wild are going to need to duplicate the way they played in Game 1, or else they’re going to have big problem on their hands.

Message received: Blackhawks need to be physical

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167241861_slideI’ve been saying it all season, and I’ll say it again. The Blackhawks are not a tough team, and they are not a physical team. Last night’s game in Vancouver proved just that. The Canucks were on a mission to hit anyone wearing a white sweater, regardless of the name on the back. The result? A 3-1 pounding of the Blackhawks. If anyone out there was looking for a prelude to what the playoffs may be like, or how to beat the Blackhawks, just go back and watch a recording of last night’s game and focus on the blue team.

About a week and a half ago, the Blackhawks won a big game on a Sunday afternoon in St. Louis. At the time, it looked as though the Hawks were capable of playing through intense physicality from the other team. The Blues were taking runs at the Hawks the entire first period of that game, but the Blackhawks were able to work through it and come away with a good win. Last night, however, proved that the Blackhawks can’t always rely on their skill and speed to get them through tough, physical games.

The Canucks outhit the Hawks 37-23, and in the process sent a clear message: “If you guys (the Hawks) want to make it through the playoffs, you need to be physical.” Well Vancouver, the message was received. The NHL playoffs take physicality to an entirely new level compared to the regular season. Teams who can play physically and with skill tend to do very well. Just look at the 2010 Blackhawks for proof.

This year’s Hawks team was not built to be physical. They were not constructed to outhit their opponents on a nightly basis. However, that doesn’t mean that they should just sit back and let their opponents obliterate them all night long with hard, bone-crushing hits. 167232269_slideLast night, the Canucks destroyed the Hawks with their physicality, and there was virtually no response from the visitors. Sure, about half way through the third period and down 3-0 some Blackhawks players started hitting, but that was way too little, way too late. So my question is this. Why did it take the Hawks two and a half periods to start hitting? Also, why didn’t anyone step up and respond to guys like Ryan Kesler who were taking runs at the Hawks’ star players all game long? When you see someone taking borderline cheap shots at your captain, it’s time to go out there and respond by either doing the same thing to their stars, or go after the guy(s) delivering those shots. Pat Foley and Eddie Olczyk mentioned this a few times as the game went on.

With the playoffs starting in about a week, the Blackhawks need to figure out how to handle teams like Vancouver who can combine skill and toughness to win games. The first round will be physical for the Hawks, but none of their potential first round opponents are nearly as physical as Vancouver. At some point, however (if the Hawks advance in the playoffs), they are going to meet a team like Vancouver, L.A., or St. Louis who will use their toughness as a primary weapon, and the Hawks are going to need to respond.

The Blackhawks and us fans cannot rely on Brandon Bollig, Daniel Carcillo, and Jamal Mayers to be our “big hitters” for the playoffs. Those guys see little ice time each game, and at least one is a healthy scratch each game. This means that guys like Bickell, Stalberg, Shaw, Handzus, Seabrook, Rozsival, Keith, and maybe even Saad or Toews need to become more physical to counter their opponents. It needs to be a team effort, not just one or two guys.

Maybe last night was a good thing for the Hawks in that they are now fully aware that they need to alter their game in order to beat a very physical team in the postseason. At least one thing is for sure, however, and that is the Blackhawks received a very stern message from one of the league’s better teams. If this team is going to go on any type of run in the playoffs, they need to step up and respond to other teams’ physicality. That’s a fact.

Blackhawks stand pat at the deadline

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ct-spt-0113-haugh-blackhawks-chicago--20130113-001Well, the NHL trade deadline has come and gone, and the Blackhawks’ only move of significance (if you want to call it that..) was acquiring Michal Handzus from the San Jose Sharks on Monday. Other than that, they made a couple of small deals involving some minor league prospects. The rest of the contenders in the NHL, however, were rather active.

Let’s start by listing some of the players acquired by contending teams at, or before this year’s trade deadline:

  • Pittsburgh Penguins: Jarome Iginla, Brendan Morrow, Jussi Jokinen, and Douglas Murray.
  • Boston Bruins: Jaromir Jagr and Wade Redden.
  • Vancouver Canucks: Derek Roy
  • Columbus Blue Jackets: Marian Gaborik
  • Minnesota Wild: Jason Pominville
  • New York Rangers: Ryan Clowe, Derick Brassard, and Derek Dorsett.
  • Anaheim Ducks: Matthew Lombardi

Those are not all the deals that were made, but the significant ones. As you can see, most contenders made some bold moves to strengthen their teams in the last few days, especially Pittsburgh and Boston.

Meanwhile, Stan Bowman went out and got Michal Handzus, who was a healthy scratch for San Jose the last 6 games before being traded. I hate to rip on Handzus, but the guy is really not going to make a big difference for the Hawks. Other than his ability to win faceoffs, he provides little else to the team. If you compare that acquisition to any of the ones I listed above, it seems very insignificant.

Teams like Anaheim, who have proven that they will give the Hawks all kinds of problems if they meet in the playoffs, legitimately got better. The Ducks traded for center Matthew Lombardi today who was with the Coyotes. Lombardi is not a big name or an elite player in the league, but he is a guy who when placed on a team with a lot of talent (like the Ducks) can be an effective depth player.

It would appear that the biggest reasons the Hawks did not make any significant trades were because Bowman did not want to break up the team chemistry, and he didn’t want to trade away any “decent” prospects.

How long is it going to take Bowman to realize that you need to be willing to trade away some prospects to get a good player in return? He has overvalued his “prospects” since the day he took over as GM of the Blackhawks, and it is going to come back to haunt him come playoff time, again. You, Bowman, cannot sit there and tell me that you could not have gotten Derek Roy or Jaromir Jagr.

The Canucks got Roy in exchange for a prospect and second round pick. The Bruins got Jagr for 2 prospects and a conditional second round pick. If Bowman is not willing to give up a prospect and draft pick in an attempt to really make his team better, than what good is he doing? If his plan is to wait 3-5 years for all of his “prospects” and draft picks to blossom into their full potential, then that plan better work, or else he just possibly blew away another chance at making a Cup run. Instead of going for it this year and adding a quality player/center to a team that could really use one, he is banking on the potential of his prospects 3 years down the road. At some point, Stan, you have to look at here and now and make a move accordingly.

The Blackhawks have some noticeable holes in their lineup, and only one was slightly covered up (faceoffs). I still think that they should make it to at least the second round this year in the playoffs, but the postseason is a whole different animal compared to the regular season. Teams are going to take advantage of the Hawks’ lack of size and potential weaknesses on the back end.

I guess the bottom line here is that Bowman could have improved his team, but instead chose to overvalue and hang on to any decent prospect in the organization, which is what it takes in this league to complete a trade…

The next Hawks’ game is tomorrow night at home against the Blues. Hossa is expected back in the lineup, but Sharp is still doubtful.