Tag Archives: NHL

How the Blackhawks can win the Cup

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play_wip_15I already posted my prediction on how the Stanley Cup Final between the Blackhawks and Bruins will end. I said the Blackhawks will win in 7 games. While I am sticking with the prediction that the Hawks will win the series, who knows how many games it may take… Logic just says it’ll be 7 games based on how good both teams are. In that write-up in which I have my series prediction, I also threw some stats out there and gave a few opinions on both teams. Here, I will give my take on how I think the Blackhawks can win this series and bring the Cup back home.

Let’s start with my keys to success for the Blackhawks.

  1. Chicago’s top 2 lines. The Bruins absolutely shut down two of the world’s greatest forwards in Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin while sweeping the Penguins in the Conference Finals. They limited Pittsburgh as a whole to just 2 goals in the series. If the Blackhawks’ top 2 lines of Bickell-Toews-Kane and Sharp-Handzus-Hossa can continue producing in this series, and if Kane stays hot and Toews gets hot, Boston will be in trouble.
  2. Corey Crawford. He has been great through the first 3 rounds this postseason and 169382078_slidehas arguably been the MVP of the Hawks. His 1.74 GAA is the best of any goalie this postseason, and his .935 save percentage is second best. Boston has averaged the second most G/G during these playoffs (behind Pittsburgh), and therefore Crawford will need to be great again in this series.
  3. The power play. Neither Boston nor Chicago have a good power play, but both have stellar penalty killing units. One power play goal by either team could prove to be the difference in this series. While that sounds a little extreme, it’s not. The Blackhawks could really afford for their PP to get going and get a goal or two.
  4. Dave Bolland. Where has he been this postseason? He missed all of the first round due to a lower body injury, and maybe that’s still bothering him. Regardless, he has been rather ineffective over the last two rounds, which for him is very rare given his great postseason track record. It would be huge for him to finally get going against Boston. That doesn’t mean he needs to be averaging a point per game, but if he can get under Boston’s skin and create some chances for the 4th line, good things will happen.
  5. Win at home. The Blackhawks need to take care of business on their home ice. CT blackhawks-kings38.JPGSince 2010, Boston has the best home record in the playoffs of any team in the league. It will not be easy to win at the TD Garden. Therefore, winning at the United Center is imperative for the Hawks if they are going to win this series. While the Blackhawks have been really good on the road, they can’t count on winning in Boston. Grabbing games 1 and 2 would be huge for the Hawks before heading out east.

To build off of my first “key” of the top 2 lines producing for the Blackhawks, let me say this. Yes, Boston is one of the league’s best defensive teams. That is not a question. However, I don’t believe that they are as good as they may have appeared to have been against Pittsburgh. Holding a team to just 2 goals in a 4-game sweep is unheard of. While the Bruins did play great defense against the Penguins, I think Pittsburgh had a lot to do with how that series played out as well.

The Penguins got away from their game plan and the style of play that they were using all season long. Instead, they tried becoming enforcers and tried to get into the heads of the Bruins by being a physical team, which they’re not. There was no better example of this than Sidney Crosby going after Zdeno Chara in Game 1. That is not the Crosby we know. In trying to change the way they played against Boston, the Penguins did just that. They got away from their smart, offensive-minded game plan that got them to the Conference Finals in the first place, and it cost them. They shot themselves in the foot that series, which led to poor play and a sweep. Yes, the Bruins were good defensively, but they got some help from the Penguins as well.

tumblr_mnr55hVBeD1rmzsm8o1_500I honestly do not think that Boston will be able to hold Chicago’s top guys scoreless in this series. In fact, I don’t think they will shut them down like many are predicting. Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews are playing their best hockey of the postseason right now since being reunited on the top line (along with Bryan Bickell), and I don’t see the Bruins stopping them. If they do limit the Hawks’ first line, then there is the second line of Sharp, Handzus, and Hossa to worry about.

Patrick Sharp is tied with Bickell for second place in goals-scored this postseason with 8, while Marian Hossa has 7. Sharp and Hossa have been arguably the two most consistent players for the Blackhawks this postseason, and they are as dangerous of a second line as you will find. Michal Handzus has become a key player for the Blackhawks on the second line, and he has seemingly found some great chemistry with Hossa. If Boston does find a way to slow down the Blackhawks’ first line, they still have the second line to be concerned about. I haven’t even mentioned Chicago’s third and fourth lines.

The Blackhawks’ third line of Stalberg, Shaw, and Saad is a huge reason as to why the Blackhawks have made it this far. Andrew Shaw, while he has only 4 goals this postseason, has been a very valuable asset to the Blackhawks’ offense. He is physical, he’s an agitator, he’s fearless, and he is getting better and better at camping in front of the Chicago Blackhawks' Andrew Shaw celebrates his first period goal against the Los Angeles Kings in Game 2 of their NHL Western Conference finals playoff hockey game in Chicagonet on the power play. Viktor Stalberg has been disappointing up to this point and often receives the lowest playing time on the team, but his speed makes him a constant threat. Lately, he’s been getting more chances to produce, but hasn’t converted. As for Calder Trophy finalist Brandon Saad, his statistics are misleading. He has just 4 points (all assists), but is one of the best play-makers in the lineup. He often looks a lot like Toews and Hossa with his ability to maneuver through the defense with the puck to get to the net.

The fourth line of Frolik, Bolland, and Kruger is at times the best defensive line for Chicago. They will most likely play against David Krejci’s line in this series. As I stated earlier, look for David Bolland to pick up his game this series. He has been invisible for far too long, and it’s time for him to show up. If this line and/or the third line can get a handful of goals against Boston, the Blackhawks should be in good shape.

Defensively, Keith and Seabrook will have their hands full going against Boston’s top line. I am confident that they will get the job done. However, I will say again that the Hjalmarsson-chi_g_hjalmarsson_b1_600Oduya pairing will have a big impact on how this series plays out. Niklas Hjalmarsson is playing his best hockey of the year right now, and he’ll need to continue doing so. Johnny Oduya has looked good at times as well, but he has made way too many turnovers at others. He needs to be smarter with the puck in his own end and the neutral zone. If he can do that and be where he needs to be on defense, and if Hjalmarsson continues his hot play, I again like the Hawks’ chances.

I briefly eluded to this in my series prediction, but I’ll say it again. Boston has not played a team with as much speed as Chicago. They have not played a team who can use the stretch pass as effectively as Chicago. The Bruins will need to respect both the Hawks’ speed and stretch pass capabilities in this series by playing a conservative defense, which should open up some other chances for the Blackhawks. Chicago will need to have a good forecheck in this series, as Boston will most likely clog the neutral zone on defense.

The Blackhawks’ biggest weakness right now besides their power play is their ability to win faceoffs. They have won 47% of their draws this postseason, while Boston has won 56% of theirs (that’s the best of any playoff team). This is the biggest difference between the Bruins and Blackhawks. While the Hawks were able to win games against L.A. despite their inability to win faceoffs, they’ll need to be at least a little better against Boston. Not many teams can still be as good after losing the faceoff as the Chicago, but they can’t count on losing that many draws and being successful in this series.

There are so many different aspects of this series that can be discussed, but these are the biggest ones for the Blackhawks. If they can play the way they did against L.A., which I think they will, I like their odds. Boston is going to be the toughest challenge for Chicago since maybe the Red Wings in the ’09 playoffs, but this Blackhawks team is more than capable of winning.

Game 1 can’t come soon enough.

Stanley Cup Final prediction

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First off, I have correctly predicted the outcomes of 11 of the 14 playoff series’ this postseason after the Conference Finals. I had Chicago over L.A., but Pittsburgh over Boston.

I don’t think anyone could have asked for a better final series than this one. Two major hockey cities, two Original Six teams. Boston and Chicago, the Bruins and Blackhawks. NBC couldn’t be happier, because the TV ratings for this series will probably be higher than any Stanley Cup Final in the past. Maybe the only person upset about this matchup is Gary Bettman, who probably would have liked it if Phoenix and Florida met in the Cup. But who cares what he wants, right? On to the prediction.

STANLEY CUP FINAL

56 vs. Boston-Bruins-Logo

The President’s Trophy-winning Blackhawks and the 4th seeded Bruins are two very similar teams, but also different at the same time. Both are tremendous defensively, but they each have their own way of scoring goals. After their incredible Game 7 victory over the Toronto Maple Leafs in the first round, Boston has been an unstoppable force in the East. The went on to defeat the Rangers in just 5 games, and now they are coming off of a sweep of the number 1 seeded Penguins in the Conference Final. A lot of people, myself included, didn’t think Crosby, Malkin, and the rest of the Penguins’ offense could be stopped. Man were we wrong. In their series with Pittsburgh, the Bruins allowed just TWO goals against. Now remember, the Penguins were the best team in the NHL at scoring goals this year, and yet they only had two in four games against the Bruins. That is a remarkable statistic for Boston. Credit Patrice Bergeron and his line, as well as Zdeno Chara and Tuukka Rask for shutting down the Penguins offense. What Boston did against Pittsburgh is what they’ll most likely do against Chicago in terms of defense. They had Patrice Bergeron’s line play against either the Crosby or Malkin line, while Zdeno Chara and Dennis Seidenberg played against the other line centered by either Crosby or Malkin. Against Chicago, they will probably have Bergeron playing the Toews line, and Chara playing the Handzus line (or vice versa). Bergeron is a Selke Trophy finalist, which is awarded each year to the best defensive forward in the NHL. Chara is constantly in the Norris Trophy discussion, although this year he is not a finalist. The bottom line here is that the Bruins, led by Bergeron and Chara, are an incredible defensive team from top to bottom. In net, Tuukka Rask has been phenomenal as well. He ranks second in GAA this postseason (behind Corey Crawford), and first in save percentage. He had two shutouts in the four games against Pittsburgh. Offensively, Boston has 6 guys with over 10 points this postseason, led by David Krejci who has 21 (most in the NHL). They have been getting contributions from everyone on offense, including their defensemen. Unlike the Blackhawks, Boston gets the majority of their goals on shots from the point, or rebounds in front of the net. The Bruins are also one of the best teams in hockey at winning faceoffs, and Chicago is not. This could be a key to any success the Bruins might have in this series.

The Blackhawks have had an interesting postseason. They knocked out the Wild in 5 games in the first round, but never really played with a playoff-like intensity. In the second round, they fell into a 3-1 hole against Detroit after the first 4 games. It was at this point that the Hawks finally started to play like it was the playoffs. They won 3 straight against the Wings to advance to the Conference Final, and rolled over the Kings in 5 games to reach the Stanley Cup Final. I thought that the Blackhawks would have had a lot more trouble against the Kings than they really did. The Kings were a big, physical, and fast team that liked to throw their weight around. They were the exact type of team that the Hawks have had trouble against all season. However, all that went out the door in this series, and the Blackhawks never seemed fazed by L.A.’s physicality. Corey Crawford was the MVP of this series. He came up with a number of massive saves, especially in the two overtimes of Game 5. Prior to the Conference Final, all anyone was talking about was Jonathan Quick and how amazing he was playing. Now, I think Crawford is beginning to get the respect that he deserves. He is first in the NHL in GAA this postseason, and is second in save percentage. Defensively, ever since Joel Quenneville reunited Keith and Seabrook, the Blackhawks have been really good. Niklas Hjalmarsson had arguably his best playoff series of his career against the Kings, and the Hawks will need him to continue playing well against Boston. I said before the Conference Final that the Hjalmarsson-Oduya pairing would be a key component of the Blackhawks-Kings series, and I was right. Jonathan Toews, a Selke finalist, and Marian Hossa are two of the best defensive forwards in the game and have the ability to really disrupt any team’s offense. Offensively, the Blackhawks have really turned it up over the last 4-5 games. They chased Jonathan Quick in Game 2, and put up 14 goals over 5 games against L.A. Bryan Bickell has arguably been the Hawks’ MVP this postseason, as he has 8 goals and 5 assists. Patrick Kane hadn’t done much prior to Game 4 of last series, but scored 4 goals in the final two games, including a hat trick and the winning goal in Game 5. If he stays hot for the Hawks, look out. Jonathan Toews has played a lot better lately even without lighting the lamp. Hossa and Sharp continue to get great chances and are converting more often than not.

This is going to be an excellent series. While Boston was able to completely shut down Crosby and Malkin, I am not so sure they can do that again against the Blackhawks’ top guys. Chicago has 2 all-star caliber lines, and a third and fourth line that can be dangerous as well. The stretch pass that the Blackhawks use is unlike anything Boston has tried to defend in the East this year, and they will need to respect that in this series, which will open up other opportunities for the Hawks. Also, the speed of Chicago on the backcheck and forecheck is better than any speed the Bruins have seen so far. The Blackhawks are possibly the fastest team in hockey, and they know how to use that to their advantage. Having said that, this series will be one for the ages.

-Chicago wins series, 4-3.

Red Wings put Blackhawks on the brink of elimination

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169382078_slideWell, what seemed like a season from a dream has turned into a nightmare for the Blackhawks. The President’s Trophy winners are now just one more loss away from being eliminated by the Detroit Red Wings in the Western Conference Semifinals. Most people were expecting this team to at least make the Stanley Cup Finals, if not win the whole thing. Now, the Hawks could be on the wrong side of one of the biggest upsets in NHL postseason history.

After running over the Wings in Game 1 of this series, the Blackhawks have lost 3 straight for the first time all season. Also for the first time this season, the Blackhawks were shutout in Game 4 by a score of 2-0. This is not the best time for them to be running into a string of “firsts.” In these last 3 losses to the Red Wings, the Blackhawks have looked tired, frustrated, bad, and even really good at times. Most of all, they haven’t been able to score.

After ending the season as the highest scoring team in the West, the Blackhawks have scored just 2 goals in their last 3 games. Considering it is the playoffs, that is unacceptable. What’s also unacceptable is their power play, or lack there of. The Blackhawks have had 25 power plays this postseason, and they have only scored on 3 of them. In Game 4 against Detroit, the Blackhawks were given three power plays and only managed to get a combined one shot on goal. One of those power plays came with about 5 minutes left in regulation with the Wings leading 1-0, and the Hawks failed to register a shot. Those power play numbers are flat out embarrassing and a disgrace, which leads me to my next topic.

While the Hawks are not yet technically eliminated from the playoffs, they don’t stand a very good chance of advancing past this round. Stan Bowman said at the trade deadline that he felt confident in the “group” (meaning the Blackhawks) and that no big duncan-keithchanges/trades were needed to help their chances in the postseason. I, along with many other Hawks fans, felt that Bowman was entirely wrong and couldn’t be further from the truth. Watching this team during the regular season, it was clear that they needed a true number 2 center and possibly even a bigger, more physical winger or two. So what did Bowman do? He traded for Michal Handzus who was a regular healthy scratch for the San Jose Sharks. His reasoning? Handzus was good at faceoffs.

If you look at the Blackhawks’ biggest weaknesses in this series against Detroit, their inability to win faceoffs might be their most glaring one (aside from the power play). For the playoffs, the Blackhawks have won 48 percent of their draws, which is not good. Michal Handzus, Stan Bowman’s “big” acquisition at the deadline, has won 46 percent of his faceoffs. If he isn’t winning faceoffs, Handzus is a worthless player who can’t skate, has no offensive ability, and refuses to use his 6’5″ frame to his advantage. Basically, he should be benched. My point here is that for the past 3 seasons, Stan Bowman has stated at the trade deadline that he “likes the team the way it is” and that no upgrades via trades are needed. How has that philosophy worked out for you Stan? Take a good look at Pittsburgh, Boston, or even L.A. (all 3 of which are poised to advance to the next round). All three teams addressed their needs at the trade deadline by making bold moves to acquire players such as Jarome Iginla, Brendan Morrow, Jaromir Jagr, and Robyn Regehr, and each move has paid off. If the Blackhawks do not advance to the next round, or even the Stanley Cup, then someone needs to really evaluate Bowman and his position within the organization.

Another thing to look for if the Hawks don’t advance is changes to the coaching staff. The Blackhawks’ power play, as I already stated, is pathetic. There is WAY too much talent on this team for their PP to be so bad. While some of the blame obviously belongs to the players, I believe a lot of it should fall on the coaching. Not once have I seen the Blackhawks try using a different power play system to get things rolling. They constantly try skating the puck into the offensive zone where they then have it stripped at the blue line. Can’t Quenneville or Jamie Kompon (their power play coach) look at video of the Penguins, Sharks, or even the team they’re playing right now, the Wings, and see how these other teams are being successful? Maybe they are, but it sure as heck doesn’t appear so. The bottom line is this. Jamie Kompon has not done the job that he was hired by Quenneville to do: make the power play better. Kompon was highly criticized in L.A. the last few seasons for this same reason before he was eventually let go. Still, Quenneville chose to replace Mike Haviland with him, and therefore Quenneville should be questioned as well.

With the way things are going right now, all signs are indicating that the Blackhawks will not advance past this round. If that comes true, then the organization as whole needs to be reevaluated and the proper changes need to be made. Whether it is the players, management, and/or coaching staff, someone is not doing their job. This team is good, but could have been made better. This team also has a ton of talent, but it isn’t all being utilized by the coaching. While I still believe that it is entirely possible for the Hawks to win Game 5 on home ice, I am not too confident that they will win 3 in a row against a very good Detroit team.

If this team doesn’t advance, pay close attention in the following weeks to any changes that will be made.

Blackhawks now in a hole

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169140836_slideFor the first time this season, the Blackhawks find themselves facing some major adversity. This is something that they, nor us fans are really used to. After their 24-game point streak to start the season, the Hawks were pretty much assured a playoff spot without much doubt. Not once this year have they had to play a very meaningful game, until now. Sure, they played a 5-game series against the Wild in the first round, but not once did Minnesota actually put the Blackhawks in a hole, or threaten their Stanley Cup hopes.

With their Game 3 loss to Detroit, the Blackhawks are now down 2-1 in their series with the Wings, with Game 4 scheduled for Thursday night. Their loss in Game 3 was definitely a tough one to swallow after Andrew Shaw had a goal taken away from him early in the third period that would have tied the game at 2 apiece. According to the referee who made the call, Andrew Shaw “interfered” with Jimmy Howard and did not allow Howard a fair chance at making the save. Replay after replay of this play showed that there was absolutely no interference on Shaw’s part, and the Blackhawks got blatantly screwed. This call changed the entire complexion of the third period and gave all the momentum back to Detroit. Still, this is no excuse for losing the game, although it didn’t help.

In Game 1, the Blackhawks used their speed to their advantage and basically skated circles around each Red Wing player on the ice. They forchecked as well as they have all year long and had numerous extended offensive zone shifts. To make it simple, the Blackhawks dominated the first game of this series.

Games 2 and 3, however, were quite different. In Game 2, the Wings were the team with livelier legs and more energy, and at times they were skating circles around the Hawks. It looked as though Detroit was playing a Game 7, and the Blackhawks were playing a regular season game. Game 3 was better for the Hawks, but it still took them 2 periods and a 2-goal deficit to really get going. Even then, they just couldn’t get the job done. They eclipsed the 40-shot mark, which is always good, but ran into a hot goalie and determined defense while doing so.

Detroit is forcing the Hawks to play a dump and chase type game, and they have not allowed the Blackhawks to utilize their speed since Game 1. Along with that, the Wings are playing much more physical than the Wild ever did in round 1, and that seems to be bothering the Hawks. Almost every time this year that a team has tried to play a physical game against Chicago, the Blackhawks have lost. They are not equipped to handle such physical pressure. They get thrown off their game and end up playing in what seems like a “scramble-mode.”

The Blackhawks have been most successful in this series when they have been able to run their cycle in the offensive zone and make clean, quick passes. When they can generate their offense from the blue line and have their defensemen be effective with the duncan-keithpuck in the offensive zone, that is when the Blackhawks’ offense is at its best. Against Detroit, this is more of what they are going to need to do from here on out. The Wings are not letting the Hawks get many two on one/three on two rushes. They are forcing the Hawks to chip the puck in behind Jimmy Howard and go retrieve it. This is why it is imperative for them to get their d-men involved along the blue line and help spread the Wings’ defense out to create more space in the passing lanes.

For the first time this year, the Blackhawks are facing a must-win game in Game 4. They cannot afford to go down 3-1 against Detroit. The Hawks need to be smart and disciplined from start to finish next game and beat the Wings between the whistles. Andrew Shaw cannot continue to take penalties after the whistle has blown, and Bryan Bickell cannot let his emotions get the best of him with Dan Cleary. Yes, the Blackhawks PK has been perfect this postseason, but you can’t keep poking the bear by taking bad penalties.

A number of people didn’t take Joel Quenneville or Jonathan Toews too seriously last round when they both said that the Blackhawks need to play with more energy and intensity. See what happens when you take a round off? Now the Hawks are struggling to find that playoff intensity that is needed to win postseason games, and it is costing them.

Expect to see a desperate and determined Blackhawks team in Game 4. If you don’t, then they’ve got a big problem and could be on the golf course next week sometime.

NHL Eastern Conference Semifinals predictions

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So as it turns out after last night’s pair of Game 7’s, I went 6-2 in predicting the outcomes of the first round. I’m pretty proud of myself to be honest with you. What a comeback by the Bruins! I’ve never seen anything like that in hockey. The city of Toronto will be in mourning for the next month, that’s for sure.

Alright, the predictions.

1-7 Matchup:

2518158277_cf0b185de3 vs. 2bkf2l3xyxi5p0cavbj8

Season series: Penguins 3-0-0 against Senators.

Next to the Sharks, I think the Senators were by far the most impressive team in the first round. Maybe even more impressive than San Jose, but that’s debatable. Ottawa survived the intensity of their series with the Canadiens and flat out dominated them between fights. Goal scoring was not an issue in that first round for the Sens, as they averaged exactly 4 goals per game (good for second behind Pittsburgh). Everyone was seemingly producing and tallying points for Ottawa. Meanwhile, Craig Anderson played a phenomenal series in net and shut down the Montreal offense. He has been one of the most underrated goalies in the NHL in recent years, and now he is finally starting to get some respect. This guys is for real. For Ottawa to beat Pittsburgh, Anderson is going to need to be great again. The Penguins have arguably the league’s most potent offense, and they rely on that offense to win them games. If the Senators can play solid defense and get good goaltending, we might have ourselves an upset.

As for the Penguins, they have to be a little concerned after the way they performed against the Islanders in the first round. Sure, they won the series without going to a 7th game, but a lot of people feel that series should have been over with a lot sooner. I’d say that in 3 or maybe even 4 of those games against the Islanders, New York dominated the play. The fact that Pittsburgh still came away with a victory in that series is a credit to their depth and talent. However, that series also exposed some weaknesses of the Penguins. Marc Andre Fleury is no longer their starting goalie after yet another bad first round performance. Thomas Vokoun is their guy in goal now, and they’ll need him to be solid from here on out. Over his career, Vokoun has been a pretty streaky goalie, so we’ll just have to see which side of him shows up in this series. Also, Pittsburgh’s defense is very beatable. The Islanders proved this. For Pittsburgh to win this series, their blue liners are going to need to be a lot better than they were in round one. Ottawa has one of the hottest offenses right now, and that could be an issue for Pittsburgh’s defense.

-Pittsburgh wins series, 4-3.

4-6 Matchup:

Boston-Bruins-Logo vs. 144

 

Season series: Rangers 2-1-0 against Bruins.

It took 7 games for both of these teams to advance to the second round, and thankfully for us NHL fans, we have our second series consisting of two Original 6 teams (the other being Chicago-Detroit). Incredibly, this is the first postseason meeting between these two teams since the mid ’70’s. In their first round series with Washington, New York got great goaltending from Henrik Lundqvist, and timely scoring from a number of players. Derick Brassard (acquired from Columbus at the deadline) has been huge for New York and was a key component to their first round victory. Other than him, however, no Rangers forwards were really that great in the first round. They ranked 10th in goals per game after round one, and that needs to improve. They will be going against a much better defense in the Boston Bruins in the second round. To me, the biggest question with New York is their scoring. They have the weapons to be a good offensive team, but they just haven’t produced like one all year long. They absolutely have to be better against Boston. One thing going for the Rangers, however, is the fact that they have Henrik Lundqvist on their side. He can single-handedly win any series.

The Bruins are lucky to still be alive right now. After trailing 4-1 midway through the third period of their Game 7 against Toronto, it looked for sure like the Leafs would pull of the upset. However, Boston never gave up and willed their way back into the game, scoring 2 goals with the goalie pulled in the final minute and a half of regulation time to tie it. Patrice Bergeron scored the eventual game winner in overtime to send the TD Garden into a frenzy. Now, that they’re in the second round, the Bruins need to wake up and play their game. They were ugly, slow, and downright sloppy at times against Toronto. That can’ happen anymore. Tuukka Rask played alright in the first round, but we all know he can be better. He’ll need to be. Offensively, Boston ranked 5th in goals per game in the first round, which isn’t bad. On the flip side, they ranked 9th in goals against. That needs to be better. All year long, the Bruins have prided themselves on their defense and goaltending. Those two areas need to improve for them to advance any further in these playoffs. One advantage that they have over New York is experience. Boston is just 2 years removed from winning the Stanley Cup, and they still have a number of players from that team on their roster. Those guys that have won the Cup need to step up and lead the team.

-Boston wins series, 4-2.

NHL Western Conference Semifinals predictions

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Hard to believe that the first round is already over, at least in the West. There are two Game 7’s tonight in the East between the Bruins and Maple Leafs, and the Rangers and Capitals. As it turns out, I did pretty well with my predictions for the first round of the series’ that have ended. In the West, I said that the Blackhawks would beat the Wild in 5 games, and they did. I had the Kings beating St. Louis in 6, and they did that as well. I thought Ottawa would win their series in 6 games, but they won it in 5 instead. The Islanders gave the Penguins a run for their money, but Pittsburgh won that one in 6 games, while I thought they’d win it in 5. The Sharks-Canucks series was pretty shocking to everyone I think. I had Vancouver in 7. As for the Duck-Wings series, I said the Ducks would win that in 6. So overall, I went 4 and 2 in predicting the series’ that are finished.

Now, let’s get to our second round predictions.

1-7 Matchup:

56 vs. Detroit-Red-Wings-Logo

Season series: Blackhawks 4-0-0 against Red Wings.

I think it’s pretty fitting for these two rivals to have one last playoff series against each other before the Wings move to the Eastern Conference. Most people had Anaheim knocking Detroit out in the first round, but the Wings were able to pull off the upset. I think it’s safe to say that Detroit is playing their best hockey of the season right now, and Jimmy Howard is at the top of his game. The top guys of the Wings (Zetterberg and Datsyuk) really stepped up in the first round and were a big reason as to why the upset was made. While Jimmy Howard is certainly a force between the pipes, the Wings’ defense is what gives me doubts about this team. There isn’t a really great player on their blue line, and they don’t have a whole lot of depth there either. The defense and Jimmy Howard are really going to need to be outstanding in this series for the Wings to have a chance.

The Blackhawks are coming off of a pretty interesting first round victory over the Minnesota Wild. While the Hawks did win that series in just 5 games, the 8th seeded Wild gave the Blackhawks some problems. They clogged the neutral zone, limited the passing lanes, and forced the Hawks to play a dump-and-chase type of game. For a lot of that series, the Blackhawks looked slow and not in “playoff-mode.” Maybe they were playing down to the level of their competition, or maybe they just weren’t really revved up for that series. Whatever the case was, the Blackhawks need to step up their game and take it to a new level against the Wings. Corey Crawford, who was great in the first round, will need to continue his strong play. Dave Bolland will be back for the Hawks centering the third line, which is a good addition to the lineup. I think the speed and talent of the Blackhawks’ forwards will overwhelm the Wings’ blue liners in this series, and that will end up being the difference.

-Chicago wins series, 4-2.

5-6 Matchup:

third_jersey_logo vs. sharks_new

Season series: Kings 2-1-1 against Sharks.

I don’t think any team in the league was more impressive in the first round than the San Jose Sharks. They absolutely dominated their series against the 3rd seeded Canucks and were the first team to advance to the second round after the sweep. Antti Niemi was great in the first round, just like all year, and the Sharks’ offense was clicking on all cylinders. Defensively, the Sharks were pretty impressive as well. Dan Boyle played a great series, and the decision to put Brent Burns at a forward position proved to be a key one. The Sharks’ power play came up big all series long against Vancouver, and they’re going to need that to continue. Scoring 5 on 5 against L.A. and Jonathan Quick won’t be easy. One thing that concerns me about San Jose is the fact that they played so well in the first round. This may sound odd, but I worry that the Sharks may have played the best series that they could have, and now they can only go down hill from here on out. I don’t think that they can continue playing the way they did in round one on a consistent basis moving forward. We’ll see…

As for the Kings, they bounced back rather nicely after losing the first two games in the first round against the Blues. After those two losses, L.A. won 4 straight to win that series and eliminate St. Louis for the second year in a row. Jonathan Quick was outstanding over the final 4 games in the first round, and it appears that he may now be back to his Conn Smythe mode. If so, that’s a bad sign for San Jose. The Kings’ offense was not bad in the first round, but they did have some off-nights. This was their problem during last year’s regular season, but they turned things around for their Stanley Cup run. While I don’t think that their offense will be as inconsistent as it was during the 2011-2012 season, I am not sure that they are consistent enough to win the Cup this year. However, defense and goaltending win Stanley Cups in this league, and L.A. has both. This is a team that I can see making it to the Conference Finals and maybe even the Cup, but that’s about it. This should be a good series nonetheless.

-L.A. wins series, 4-3.

Check back in the next day for my Eastern Conference predictions.

 

Blackhawks up 3-1; Great playoffs so far

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imageWith last night’s 3-0 win over the Minnesota Wild, the Blackhawks now have a 3-1 lead in their first round series and will look to eliminate the Wild on Thursday night. For really the first time in this postseason, the Blackhawks actually played a “playoffs style” of hockey in Game 4, and it payed off. Joel Quenneville said after their Game 3 loss that he wanted to see a more “intense” team, while Jonathan Toews said he wanted to see the Hawks actually play like they were in the playoffs.

For the first three games of this series, it looked as though the Blackhawks were still playing like it was the regular season. They weren’t being physical, they weren’t playing with desperation or intensity, and they flat out weren’t playing playoff hockey. Minnesota, on the other hand, was playing playoff hockey. Especially in Game 3, they were hitting anyone in a white jersey without regrets, scoring ugly goals, and making life miserable for the Blackhawks.

In Game 4, the Blackhawks finally changed their style of play and played a playoff-type game. They still weren’t very physical, but they played a gritty hockey game and quit trying to be so “cute” with the puck. In the playoffs, you need to have a lot of traffic in front of the net and get a lot of shots on goal. You can’t afford to try and make highlight reel plays that often don’t even result in a shot on goal. I thought that the Blackhawks did a better job of getting away from that “highlight reel” stuff last night and just got pucks to the net instead, which was good.

While I was more pleased with the Hawks’ offense last night than I was in games 1 or 3, I am still very disappointed in their unwillingness to get physical. I can’t even begin to think of the number of times someone on the Hawks has had a chance to hit a Wild player into the glass, but instead pulled up short and tried to poke check imagethe puck away instead. In Game 1, Andrew Shaw put a big hit on Torrey Mitchell (who had the puck) behind the Wild net, which separated Mitchell from the puck. This led to a turnover, and Bryan Bickell scored the game winning goal on the Hawks’ ensuing possession. In Game 4, Andrew Shaw again put a big hit on Adam Falk in behind the Wild net, separated him from the puck, and Bryan Bickell scored after picking up that loose puck created by Shaw’s hit. My point is that the few times that the Hawks have decided to get physical and create turnovers off of hits along the boards, good things have happened. The Wild have been doing a lot more of this than the Blackhawks, and they have generated a ton of scoring chances by doing so. This is the playoffs, and the Hawks are refusing to get physical. If they want any chance of winning another series, they’ve got to play tougher.

Defensively, the Blackhawks’ d-men have been outstanding in this series. Game 4 was probably the best defensive game that they have played in the this series, and it led to a shutout. Not many teams have all 6 defensemen playing as well as they are for the Hawks.

Corey Crawford has looked really good so far in the first round. He has come up with a number of big saves to keep the Hawks in games, and in Game 4 recorded his second career postseason shutout (the first being in Game 5 against the Canucks in 2011).

Moving forward, the Blackhawks would obviously like to finish off the Wild in Game 5 back at the United Center. To do so, they’ll need to play with speed, physicality, and more offensive zone-time. They are much more talented than Minnesota, and they need to show that in Game 5. Often the toughest game of a series is the one in which you can eliminate your opponent. I’d expect the Wild to play their best game of the series, and the Hawks need to counter their desperation.

THE REST OF THE LEAGUE

Who would have thought that San Jose would sweep Vancouver? I had the Canucks winning in 7 games. I also said that the team with the better power play would win that series, and as it turns out, San Jose had the much better PP. Alain Vigneault has probably coached his last game behind the Canucks’ bench.

The Detroit-Anaheim series has turned into a great one. The Wings took Game 4 in overtime to tie the series at 2 apiece heading back to California. I still think the Ducks will finish this one off in 6, however.

After dropping the first 2 games in St. Louis, the defending champs won both games back in L.A. and head back to the Gateway to the West looking to make it a third straight victory. Jonathan Quick has bounced back nicely after a shaky first couple of outings in this series. I will stick with my original prediction of the Kings winning in 6 games.

Out East, the Penguins find themselves tied 2-2 with the 8th seeded Islanders heading back to Pittsburgh for Game 5. New York has looked very good at times in this series, but also pretty weak at others. Like I said in my predictions before the first round started, Marc Andre Fleury could be the weakness of the Pens. He might not even get the start in Game 5 after the way he’s played. The winner of Game 5 will win that series.

Talk about a rivalry that’s started in the playoffs…. Montreal and Ottawa are engaged in what might be the most physical, dirtiest playoff series in the last decade. That being said, Ottawa took Game 4 in overtime and now leads that series 3-1. I predicted the Sens in 6, and I’m sticking to it.

After winning the first 2 in Washington, the Capitals dropped Game 3 in New York. The Rangers will look to tie that series up tonight at MSG. Henrik Lundqvist will be the key to Game 4 in my opinion. I predicted the Rangers in 7. I’ll still say this goes to 7 games, but there might be a different winner.

Boston has looked pretty good through the first 3 games against Toronto. They regained home-ice advantage with their win in Game 3, and they’ll look to go up 3-1 tonight. I said Boston in 5, and it looks like that could be the case.

Blackhawks take Game 1 in OT

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167823962_slideIt wasn’t pretty, but a win’s a win. The Blackhawks and Wild needed overtime to decide the outcome of Game 1, and Bryan Bickell ended up scoring the big goal to win it for the Hawks by a score of 2-1. Many people, myself included, predicted that this would end up being a quick series (and it still may be), but I did not expect the Blackhawks to look so lethargic in Game 1. At times, it looked like they were skating in mud.

Maybe it was a case of the Blackhawks shaking off some rust, or maybe it was them trying to play through some playoff jitters. Whatever the case may have been, they simply did not look good for the first 2 periods of last night’s game. Their passes were off the mark, they were only getting one shot per possession, and they rarely sustained any pressure on the Minnesota defense. It was one of the sloppiest games that the Hawks have played all year.

Corey Crawford did not help anyone feel comfortable about last night’s game when he allowed a very soft goal to Cal Clutterbuck early in the first period. It was the exact type of soft goal that we got too used to seeing in last year’s playoffs. To Corey’s credit, however, he bounced back and played a great game from then on and did not allow another goal.

Marian Hossa scored on the powerplay in the second period to tie the game at 1 apiece after a beautiful feed from Patrick Kane. This had to be big for the Blackhawks’ confidence to get a powerplay goal right off the bat in the playoffs. After all, it’s not a secret that their powerplay was rather bad this season.

Late in overtime, an unbelievable bank-pass high off the glass from Johnny Oduya to Viktor  Stalberg created a 2-on-1 between Stalberg and Bickell. Stalberg retrieved the pass, pulled 167823973_slideup, and hit Bickell with a perfect pass to give him a 10-foot breakaway on Josh Harding. Bickell was able to slide the puck through Harding’s five hole to win the game and send the U.C. into a frenzy.

Many analysts on the NHL Network brought up the fact that the depth of the Blackhawks is what will win them series’ in the postseason. That is exactly how they won Game 1, with the third line getting the OT goal.

So, what to take away from Game 1:

  • Josh Harding played very well in Niklas Backstrom’s absence after not starting a game since Jan. 30. Could he be the Wild’s starter the rest of the way?
  • Ryan Suter played 41 minutes. He isn’t going to have anything left in the tank by Game 3 if that trend continues, and he’s the Wild’s only hope on the blue line.
  • Corey Crawford looked very good and came up with some huge saves late in the game and overtime.
  • This may have been the best effort that the Wild could have possibly given, yet they still couldn’t come away with a victory.
  • If you’re the Blackhawks, you have to feel confident knowing that you didn’t play well, the Wild did play well, and you still won.

I would expect to see a much different Blackhawks team come Game 2 on Friday night. The Wild are going to need to duplicate the way they played in Game 1, or else they’re going to have big problem on their hands.

NHL Eastern Conference playoff predictions

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Who would have thought that the Eastern Conference playoff teams would not consist of the Philadelphia Flyers? I didn’t predict that, that’s for sure. Nonetheless, it is nice to see some new faces in the playoffs this year, like the Islanders and Maple Leafs. And how about the Senators? After all the adversity that this team has faced this season, it is pretty remarkable that they’re in the postseason again. So having said that, let’s get to the predictions.

1-8 Matchup:

2518158277_cf0b185de3 vs. 138

Season series: Penguins 4-1-0 against Islanders.

Well it’s no surprise to see Pittsburgh as the number 1 seed in the East, but it is a surprise to see the Islanders as the number 8 seed. I am confident in saying that I don’t believe many people projected the Islanders to be a playoff team this year. John Tavares, on the other hand, had different thoughts about his team and willed them to the postseason. Him and Matt Moulson recorded 47 and 44 points respectively this year, and they are going to need to continue to produce against the Penguins. Evgeni Nabakov had a major bounce back season this year by going 23-11-7, and his playoff experience is huge for the Islanders. Not many guys on that team have ever played in the postseason before, so it’s nice for them to have a goalie with experience. He’s going to need to be great for the Islanders to advance.

The Penguins have shown all year long that they are a force in the Eastern Conference, and they are going to be the toughest out in the East. They went out and really upgraded their team at the trade deadline by acquiring Jarome Iginla and Brendan Morrow, and both of those guys have fit pretty well into the lineup since. The biggest concern for Pittsburgh right now is the health of Sidney Crosby. He recently started practicing again after sitting out for a month with a broken jaw, but it is unclear as to when he may return to game action. Although I feel that the Penguins should still take down the Islanders without much of a problem even without Crosby, I wouldn’t ink them in as the Eastern Conference champs like many people are. Marc Andre Fleury worries me about the Penguins chances with his sub-par play in recent postseasons.

-Pittsburgh wins series, 4-1.

2-7 Matchup:

124 vs. 2bkf2l3xyxi5p0cavbj8

Season series: Senators 2-1-1 against Canadiens.

After a couple years of missing the playoffs, Montreal is back as the number 2 seed in the East after barely edging out the Bruins for the division championship. Ottawa, meanwhile, is back in the playoffs yet again even after all the injuries they suffered this season. Daniel Alfredsson (their captain) missed the entire season, and Jason Spezza (their best goal scorer) played in just 5 games. Neither will play in the postseason. Erik Karlsson only played in 17 games because of a severed achilles, but made a remarkable return to the lineup for the last game of the regular season. His presence in the lineup will be HUGE for the Senators in the playoffs. Craig Anderson had his best season as a goalie, posting 1.69 goals-against average and a .941 save percentage. He should be a Vezina finalist, and rightfully so. Ottawa will need Anderson to continue his strong play into the postseason. If he does, this is a team that could do some damage.

Montreal had a great start to the season, but saw their play slip a little in April (a 7-7-0 record). They had 5 players record at least 30 points this year, including 2 defensemen. One of which, P.K. Subban, should be a Norris Trophy finalist. But to me, the biggest story-line surrounding this team will be the play of Carey Price. He went 21-13-4 this season with a 2.59 GAA and a .905 save percentage. Over the last month or so, however, Price has really started to fade. Fans in Montreal have become extremely critical of Price, and I am sure that if he slips up early in this series that Peter Budaj will take over in net. To me, the Canadiens go as Carey Price goes.

-Ottawa wins series, 4-2.

3-6 Matchup:

llrs2zxi127vkqgcsvfb vs. 144

Season series: Rangers 2-0-1 against Capitals.

Thanks to the unbelievable play of Alex Ovechkin down the home stretch of the season, the Capitals find themselves as division champions and the 3 seed in the East. The Rangers, however, cannot be happy with their 6th place finish in the conference. This was a team that almost everyone had winning the conference and advancing to the Finals prior to the season after their acquisition of Rick Nash. Unexpectedly, the Rangers just couldn’t get things rolling until April where they went 10-3-1. At the trade deadline, they parted ways with Marian Gaborik and received Derek Dorsett, Derick Brassard, and John Moore in return. This was apparently the spark that the Rangers needed to get going, because they have been a much better team since. Henrik Lundqvist is still one of the top goalies in hockey, and he has the ability to single-handedly win a series for New York. If he plays well and Derek Stepan keeps up his torrid pace, this team will get by the first round.

-New York wins series, 4-3.

4-5 Matchup:

Boston-Bruins-Logo vs. Toronto-Maple-Leafs-Logo

 

Season series: Boston 3-1-0 against Maple Leafs.

Talk about a classic rivalry series… I think I speak on behalf of most NHL fans when I say that I am excited to watch these two teams go at it. Finally, the Maple Leafs are back in the playoffs, and their fans are going to be going nuts at the Air Canada Centre for Game 3. After all that talk of Toronto possibly trading for either Roberto Luongo or Mikka Kiprusoff, their goaltending really hasn’t been bad. James Reimer went 19-8-5 this year with a 2.46 GAA and a .924 save percentage. He doesn’t have playoff experience, which could hurt, but the Leafs have to have some confidence in this guy after the season he had. Phil Kessel, who led the Leafs with 52 points, will get a chance to eliminate his former team, and the Maple Leafs are going to need him to give everything he’s got.

After a great start to the season, Boston was eventually caught and overrun by the Canadiens in the division. But don’t let that fool you. The Bruins are still one of the best teams in hockey, and one of the toughest teams to play against. Tuukka Rask was one of the better goalies in hockey this season with a 2.00 GAA and a .929 save percentage. His play, plus the team defense of the Bruins resulted in Boston finishing third in the league in GA/G. Teams with a good GA/G always tend to fare well in the postseason. The addition of Jaromir Jagr at the trade deadline could pay off now more than it has up to this point in the season, as Jagr is a very experienced postseason player and knows how to win big games. Also, the Bruins are just 2 years removed from winning the Cup and know what it takes to get back there. Don’t let their finish in the conference fool you. This is a dangerous team.

-Boston wins series, 4-1.

Look for my second round predictions for both conferences once the first round ends.

Thanks for reading.

NHL Western Conference playoff predictions

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I was a little off in one of my recent posts about who the Blackhawks would end up meeting in the first round of the playoffs. I said then that the Red Wings would end up with the 8th seed, and Minnesota would get the 7th seed. As it turns out, those two teams are flip-flopped, and the Blackhawks will play the Wild in round one, with the Wings getting Anaheim.

As I did last year, I will offer up my predictions as to how the first round will play out. First, we’ll start with the Western Conference.

1-8 Matchup:

56 vs. Minnesota-Wild-Logo

Season series: Blackhawks 2-0-1 against Wild.

Not a lot of people expected to see the Wild finish the season as the 8th seed in the West (many thought they’d be a top 3), but here they are. The Wild actually played the Blackhawks pretty well this year, and were the first team to hand the Hawks a loss this season when they beat Chicago in a shootout on Jan. 30 by a score of 3-2. That game was in Minnesota. In the other two meetings, the Blackhawks won 5-3 in Chicago, and then they won again 1-0 back in Minnesota. There is not a question that the Wild have potential to be dangerous with guys like Parise, Koivu, Suter, and Setoguchi (Dan Heatley is out after having surgery). However, they just haven’t been able to put it all together for long stretches this year, which is why they are the 8 seed. Right now, the Wild are playing arguably their worst hockey of the year and are limping into the playoffs.

Meanwhile, Chicago started the season with 24 straight games with at least a point, and they really haven’t taken their foot off the gas peddle since. From start to finish this season, the Hawks have been the best team in hockey. They will most likely finish with the fewest goals-against per game (GA/G) in the NHL (depending on what Ottawa does today), and they finished second in the league in goals per game (G/G). Their powerplay has looked bad at times, but their PK has made up for it, ranking 4th in the league. Goaltending, which was a major question mark for this team coming into the season, has been one of their biggest strengths this year. Everyone knows that good goaltending can win you the Cup. I think this should be a good, but most likely quick series.

-Chicago wins series, 4-1.

2-7 Matchup:

ducks-logo-TRANS vs. Detroit-Red-Wings-Logo

 

Season series: Red Wings 2-1-0 against Ducks.

I think it’s safe to say that no one predicted the Ducks to finish this high in the standings before the season started. A lot of people probably didn’t even have them making the playoffs. I would also say that many people had the Wings missing the playoffs as well after losing so many assets following last season. However, the Ducks proved us all wrong, and the Red Wings have now made the postseason 22 seasons in a row. While Detroit still has guys like Datsyuk and Zetterberg leading their offense, they are much thinner on their blue line than they used to be. This has hurt them all year long and almost cost them a playoff berth. In goal, Jimmy Howard has really been hot as of late and is a big reason why this team is in the playoffs. I think that Detroit’s lack of experience with so many young guys being in their lineup could hurt them.

The Ducks are one of the biggest teams in the West in terms of size, and they will use that to their advantage in the playoffs. They have two goalies who have played well all season, but Jonas Hiller will get the nod for the postseason. He, much like Jimmy Howard, has the ability to steal a series. The Ducks powerplay ranked 4th in the league this year, and their penalty kill ranked 13th. I’m sure that they would like to see their PK be better in the playoffs, but if they can continue dominating on the PP, they’ll be tough to beat.

-Anaheim wins series, 4-2.

3-6 Matchup:

canucks-logo vs. sharks_new

Season series: Sharks 3-0-0 against Canucks (one win in a SO).

Let me start by saying that these two teams don’t like each other. When they met 2 years ago in the playoffs, they played an extremely physical and intense series. Vancouver ultimately won, but the Sharks gave them all they could handle. This year, the Sharks started off as one of the hottest teams in hockey before fizzling off and slipping to the middle of the pack. They have played better down the stretch, which led them to the 6th seed, but they weren’t able to beat L.A. in the final game to jump to the 5th seed. In order to beat Vancouver, the Sharks need production from all lines and not just the top 2. That has been a huge problem all year for them. Antti Niemi has been one of the top goalies all season long, and he’s going to need to continue that trend in this series.

For Vancouver, Corey Schneider will be their number 1 goalie in the playoffs, and this time there’s no doubt about it. Over the past couple of years, the Canucks weren’t really sure who their number 1 goalie was, which I’m sure led to some discomfort among the team. One of Vancouver’s biggest assets is their ability to combine physicality with skill. They are one of the roughest teams in hockey, but they can also score. Having said that, their powerplay ranked 22nd in the league this year, which will need to improve starting now. The Canucks ranked 8th on the PK. I would expect this to be an extremely physical and exhausting series for both sides. This is one of the tougher matchups to try and predict, but in the end, I think which ever team has more success on the powerplay will advance to the next round.

-Vancouver wins series, 4-3.

4-5 Matchup:

NoteCMYK_blueTM vs. third_jersey_logo

Season series: Kings 3-0-0 against Blues.

In what will be a rematch of last year’s Western Conference Semifinals, both teams are going to have their hands full. St. Louis and L.A. are both very physical (slight edge to the Blues in that category), and they both have good goaltenders. Last season, the 8th seeded Kings swept the 2nd seeded Blues because of their team defense and goaltending. Jonathan Quick was the MVP of the playoffs last year, and I am expecting him to step up his game again this year as well. Unlike much of last season, this year the Kings offense has been rather consistent. They ranked 10th in the NHL this year in G/G, and 10th on the powerplay. They also ranked 10th on the PK, and 7th in GA/G. For them to eliminate St. Louis for the second year in a row, they’ll need their offense to show up, and they’ll need Jonathan Quick to be good.

St. Louis has to be worried about this matchup. Going back to last year’s playoffs, they are 0-7 against the Kings in their last 7 games against them. They simply have not been able to figure out Jonathan Quick, and at times their own goaltending has let them down. Speaking of that, this year St. Louis (who was a popular pick to go to the Finals before the season started) has had some trouble with their goaltending. Sure, they ranked 8th in GA/G, but that’s only because they turned things around down the stretch. While their recent play has to be a good sign, I am still not sold that this team is as good as they are said to be. They’ll absolutely need their offense to finally wake up against L.A. and Jonathan Quick, and they’ll need Brian Elliot to be very good if they want to win this series.

-L.A. wins series, 4-2.

Check back sometime in the next day or so for my Eastern Conference predictions.