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Blackhawks stay hot

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15-_DSC2491-toresizeWith last night’s 4-1 victory over the 90 point New York Islanders, the Blackhawks improved to 5-0-1 in March, and 6-1-1 without Patrick Kane. They now have 90 points on the season and sit just 4 back of the Nashville Predators with three games in hand, and 5 back of the Blues with one game in hand.

When Kane suffered his broken clavicle, putting him out for 12 weeks, most people were left with the feeling that the Blackhawks wouldn’t be able to survive without him. Then Stan Bowman made a series of trades bringing in Kimmo Timonen and Antoine Vermette most notably. Those trades seem to have re-energized the Hawks and reassured them that the front office has confidence in this group even without Kane.

Despite the trades, the Hawks still needed guys to step up their games in Kane’s absence, and they have. The team’s last three games against the Coyotes, Sharks, and Islanders (all victories) are all perfect examples.

Against Arizona, the Hawks won 2-1. Their two goals came from Andrew Shaw and Brad Richards, neither of whom had scored in over a dozen games.

In San Jose, the Hawks received goals from Sharp (hadn’t scored since late January), Keith, Saad, Bickell, Sharp again, and Hossa.

Last night against the Islanders and with Sharp reunited with Toews and Hossa on the top line, the Hawks scored 4 goals in the game. All of them came from that first line.

The Blackhawks needed to make up for Kane’s absence by getting more production from all 12 forwards in the lineup. So far, they have. This doesn’t mean that the third and fourth lines need to average a goal per game from here on out, but if they can contribute with strong efforts each night even without scoring, that will help. We can expect goals to continue coming from the Toews line, and the Vermette line with Saad and Teravainen is bound to find the back of the net with regularity sooner or later with they way they’re playing.

So with that, here are some quick thoughts:

  • Corey Crawford is back to playing like he was prior to his concert injury. He has only allowed 8 goals this month and looks as good as ever. The team will need this trend to continue heading into April and May.
  • I was calling for a Sharp-Toews-Hossa reunion a few games ago in an attempt to get Sharp back on the score sheet, and last night Q finally listened. Granted Sharp scored twice already in San Jose, but him on the top line makes him and his linemates that much more dangerous. We saw just that against the Islanders when the Toews line scored all 4 of the Hawks’ goals.
  • The second line of Brandon Saad, Antoine Vermette, and Teuvo Teravainen continues to look really good. They just aren’t scoring as much as they probably should be given their recent play. I’d expect this line to start piling up the goals sometime soon.
  • Defensively the Hawks have been better lately. They are still allowing more shots against than they’d like, but they aren’t surrendering many great scoring chances anymore.
  • Last night against the Islanders, Johnny Oduya looked like his old self again. If he can turn the corner in his game and get back to the Oduya we saw last year or the year before, that will be very good news. Also, Kimmo Timonen is slowly returning to full strength. His passing and decision making are fantastic, and if he can get his legs fully back under himself, his acquisition will really pay off.
  • Lastly, Kris Versteeg has been bad ever since returning from his injury suffered in the Winter Classic. He’s trying to do too much by himself and ends up coughing up the puck to the other team too often. Somehow, some way, he needs to get back to the way he was playing in November and December, just without Kane to his right.

Tonight is a huge game in New York against the Rangers, who will be without Martin St. Louis. When these two teams met a couple of weeks ago, the Rangers won 1-0 in OT. If they Hawks can figure out Cam Talbot early on, I like their chances in this one.

Hawks becoming a force

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130107_gq_trout_aIt’s been a bit since I’ve been able to write a post on here, but better late than never I guess. Ever since the Blackhawks went out west on their annual Circus Trip, they have become arguably, or maybe not, the NHL’s best team. They currently sit 25-10-2 on the season, which is good for second in the league behind Anaheim. Their goals against average and penalty kill percentage remain at the top of the league, and their goal scoring is among the league’s best. Not a whole lot to complain about with this team at the moment.

All year long, the team defense and goaltending of the Blackhawks have been elite. They rank first in the NHL in fewest goals against per game, second in fewest goals against, and first in penalty killing. Whether it’s Corey Crawford, Antti Raanta, or even Scott Darling between the pipes, the goaltending that the Blackhawks have received has been outstanding and a major reason why this team sits near the top of the league in points. Not to mention that all seven defensemen being used are contributing on both sides of the ice.

Offensively, the Blackhawks rank third in both goals per game and total goals scored. Combine that with the fact that they are second in fewest goals against this year, and you’re left with a league-best +39 goal differential (the next closest is Nashville at +28). The biggest knock against the Hawks’ offense is their inconsistent and underachieving powerplay. They rank fourteenth in the NHL in that category, with an 18.7 percent conversion rate. A team with as much skill as the Blackhawks should be a lot better with a man advantage.

While this season definitely did not start the way that the Blackhawks would have liked, they have completely turned things around over the last month and a half as the numbers would prove. They seem to have that “swagger” back that the 2013 team had in which they always felt they could win any game regardless of the score. Take last game against Nashville for example. The Hawks were down 3-0 about halfway through the second period against the league’s best team when it comes to keeping the puck out of the net. Within a span of seven or eight minutes, the game was tied. The Hawks would eventually win the game 5-4 in a shootout.

It is wins like that one against the Predators (among other factors) that prove this is an elite team that is fully capable of winning their third Stanley Cup in six years. Everything from their goaltending, to their defense, their offense, and their team depth is good enough to be the last team standing come early to mid June. One of the biggest reasons why last year’s team did not defeat the L.A. Kings to advance to the Stanley Cup Final was their lack of forward depth. The fourth line consisted of Marcus Kruger, Ben Smith, and Brandon Bollig. Ben Smith lacked playoff experience at the time, and Brandon Bollig might as well have just stayed on the bench. That line had little chemistry and often sat most of the game forcing the Blackhawks to roll just three lines. This year, however, the Hawks’ most common fourth line is made up of Kruger, Smith, and Dan Carcillo, who I must admit has made Stan Bowman look like a genius for re-signing him. This line sees much more playing time than last year’s and has proven that they can generate offensive chances while being responsible defensively. Joakim Nordstrom, when given the opportunity, has also looked a lot better than he did a year ago and has made the case that he belongs in the lineup on a nightly basis.

The 2014-15 Blackhawks are loaded from top to bottom, offensively and defensively. Their goaltending has been phenomenal, and they have that “feeling” to them that this could be a special spring and early summer. Assuming no major injuries occur, the Blackhawks have to be the favorite to hoist Lord Stanley’s Cup in June.

First things first, however: The Winter Classic.

Side note: With one day left in this year’s All Star Game voting, the six current players who would be elected as All Stars by the fans are Zemgus Girgensons, Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews, Duncan Keith, Brent Seabrook, and Corey Crawford.

Things starting to click for the Blackhawks

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130107_gq_trout_aEarlier in the season, not that it’s late now, the Blackhawks were struggling to win hockey games. They would win one, lose one, win one, lose two, and so on. The biggest reason for that was their inability to score goals. As I said in a previous blog, that trend was destined to hit a brick wall. This team is too talented and gets way too many shots on goal to not be among the league leaders in goals by season’s end. Well, here we are at the beginning of December, the Blackhawks fresh off their annual Circus Trip that took them out west for six games where they won five of those six and have won eight of their last ten overall. Needless to say, that whole goal scoring problem kind of disappeared.

The Hawks’ Circus Trip was bound to be a telling one with regards to this year’s team. Either they would come limping home after getting beat up pretty badly against some of the league’s best teams, or they would come back to Chicago looking like one of the NHL’s best. Fortunately, the latter scenario is the one we are currently looking at as the Hawks get ready to play their first home game tomorrow night in quite some time.

On the six-game road trip out west, there were a handful of things that we learned or continued to see from this team:

  • First of all, Corey Crawford is on pace to be an All-Star this year. He’s currently third in the NHL in goals-against average, fourth in save percentage, and sixth in wins (all among goalies with at least ten games played). He started every game on the Circus Trip (14 straight since returning form injury) and was really good in pretty much every one of those games. I’m seeing no signs of him slowing down.
  • The Hawks’ penalty kill continues to dominate opponents. They rank first in the league with a 91.3 kill percentage.
  • The Blackhawks rank second in the NHL in goals-against per game at 2.00. In fact, the top four teams in that category, and five of the top six, are all in the Central Division.
  • Patrick Kane is starting to be himself again. He dominated the latter half of the road trip. None of this is a good sign for the rest of the league.
  • Going along those same lines, the Hawks’ second line of Versteeg, Richards, and Kane was absolutely dominant over the last three games of the road trip. All three players are playing great at the moment, and we are finally seeing the Versteeg and Richards we were all hoping for.
  • Defensively, the Blackhawks look fantastic. The top two pairs of Keith-Seabrook and Hjalmarsson-Oduya were great out west. The third pairing of Rozsival-Rundblad/Clendening is a work in progress because of the inexperience of Rundblad and Clendening, but they haven’t looked bad. Losing TVR was big, but not insurmountable.
  • The Hawks dominated some of the league’s best teams out west, all without Patrick Sharp in the lineup. He’s due to return sometime very soon.
  • Oh, and remember that whole “we can’t score” thing? The Blackhawks now rank eighth in goals per game and are tied for first in goal differential.

Two stats that I just mentioned, the Hawks’ PK and goals-against per game, often mean a lot more than goals scored per game. NHL teams, especially the Hawks, will get their goals, but if you can’t keep the puck out of your own net, you’re screwed. Last year’s Stanley Cup champion, the LA Kings, finished the season first in goals-against per game. The year before that, the Blackhawks finished first in goals-against per game, and we all know how that season ended. Going back all the way to the 2010-11 season, all teams to win the Cup finished top five in goals-against per game. A huge part of that stat is how good a team is on the penalty kill. If you’re getting scored on while down a man, your goals-against average will rise. Right now, the Hawks’ PK and goals-against per game numbers are incredibly good, and there’s no reason why any of that should change. Come playoff time, those numbers mean a lot more than goals scored.

So the bottom line here is that the annual Circus Trip for the Blackhawks taught us that this team is a force to be reckoned with. It took them a while to finally start firing on all cylinders, but now they are and they look to be one of the leagues top three teams. That’s not to say that they won’t hit some bumps in the road between now and April, but this team appears to be well poised for yet another Stanley Cup run.

Now we just have to wait for April to come around…

Blackhawks in an unsustainable goal drought

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130107_gq_trout_aThe Blackhawks are currently losers of their last two games, both by one goal, and find themselves with a mediocre record of 6-5-1 on the year. Tonight they’ll be going up against a very good Canadiens team at the Bell Centre in Montreal, one of the league’s toughest road venues. All signs are indicating that tonight could be another disappointment for an almost desperate Blackhawks team. While that may end up coming true, I’m going to do my best at explaining why any night now could be the Blackhawks’ breakthrough game.

There’s a whole lot about the Blackhawks that doesn’t make sense right now. They are fifth in the entire NHL in fewest goals against per game with a 1.92 average, third in the league on the penalty kill with a 91.9 kill percentage, and have allowed the sixth fewest shots per game in the NHL. Yet their record is 6-5-1, which makes you scratch your head. Then you look at their offensive numbers, and those don’t really compute to a 6-5-1 record either. The Blackhawks lead the NHL in shots per game with an average of 38.4, which is a ridiculous number, but they rank twenty-sixth in goals per game at an average of 2.25. How can a team lead the league in shots and score such a low number of goals?

Well, there’s somewhat of an answer to that question. You can average 50 shots per game, but if those are not real quality shots, you’re not going to score goals. That’s the problem with the Hawks right now. They are putting the puck on net better than anyone in the NHL, but the quality of their shots has not been great. Their net-front presence has been severely lacking for the most part, and it is imperative to have someone, or multiple guys, standing in the shooting lane screening the opposing goalie. Too often this year have the Hawks all been spaced around the outside of the shooting lanes and not in front of the goalie obstructing his vision. That is not a hard fix and something that they’ve never had too much trouble with in the past, so I’m expecting some improvement there real soon.

Another problem that the team has had, especially recently, is the fact that they keep running into hot goalies. Two games in a row at home now they have been shut out by a rookie. In Toronto this past weekend, the Hawks had over 25 shots in the third period (most were actually quality shots) and failed to get just one past James Reimer for the tying goal. Last month at home against Calgary, the Hawks registered 50 shots on goal, only to lose the game in overtime 2-1. It’s been that type of luck that the Hawks have faced this year. A team with as much talent as the Blackhawks will see that luck change sooner than later.

Here is why we should stay optimistic. This will most likely be the lowest point of the year for the Blackhawks, at least I would hope. They really aren’t playing bad hockey right now, although certain areas definitely need improvement. If they were playing awful hockey and losing these game, then yeah I’d be worried, but that’s not the case. They are one of the best teams in the NHL at keeping the puck out of their net at even strength and on the penalty kill, which is a must come playoff time. Sure they’re not scoring right now, but that’s bound to change. The numbers that the Blackhawks are putting up right now are unsustainable, in a good way. A team that generates as many shots as they do will not be kept from scoring like this for too much longer. It’s only a matter of time before the floodgates open and this team starts to look like the team we’ve become accustomed to over the past 5 years.

If you need anymore optimism, take this: last year’s Stanley Cup winner, the L.A. Kings, ranked twenty-sixth in goals per game and first in fewest goals against per game. In the 2011-12 season in which L.A. also won the Cup, the Kings ranked second to last in goals per game, and second in fewest goals against. I’m not saying that the Hawks’ offensive numbers will stay that low, but the point I’m making is that the good teams who are great defensively are the one’s who win Stanley Cups. Right now, the Hawks would fall into that category.

Their breakthrough performance should happen anytime now. Numbers don’t lie.

Now or never

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940-toews-jonathan-8colAfter dropping Game 3 to the Kings on Saturday night in LA, the Blackhawks now trail in the series two games to one. Despite playing a solid first 40 minutes in Game 3 much like they did in Game 2, the Hawks went silent for the final 20 and lost as a result. They know it’s time to step up and put together their best 60 minute effort of the season, or else they’ll be eye-to-eye with the exit door from the playoffs. It’s now or never for the Hawks.

Here is what needs to happen in Game 4 in order for the Blackhawks to even up this Western Conference Final at two games apiece.

  • It’s time that Joel Quenneville reunites Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews on the top line. I was calling for this to happen heading into Game 3, but now it’s really time to make the move. The Blackhawks need Kane to get hot, and what better way to help that happen than by putting him back on a line with Toews? Over the years during rough stretches of the playoffs, this has been Quenneville’s go-to move to get the Hawks back on the right track. He did it going into Game 4 in LA last year, and it worked beautifully. He did it in Game 4 in Boston during last year’s Stanley Cup Final, and it worked there as well. By reuniting Kane and Toews, the Kings won’t be able to blanket either player. If they do, then they’re risking leaving the other uncovered, which is not a good thing. Also, it opens up the chance to place Hossa and Sharp back on the second line together, another move that was made going into Game 4 against LA last year that worked like a charm.
  • Michal Handzus cannot center the second line any longer, or at least while Kane is on that line. If Q does put Kane on the top line and Sharp and Hossa on the second, it is possible that he leave Handzus with Sharp and Hossa. That trio did some good things last postseason. However, the lack of speed and offensive skill that you get with Handzus is so alarming that I wouldn’t mind seeing either Smith or Shaw center Sharp and Hossa, despite the success Handzus had with 10 and 81 last year. If Kane does remain on the second line with Sharp, then there is absolutely no way Handzus can stay on that line. Kane needs to play with fast, skilled players in order for him to be effective. Placing Smith or Shaw on his line as the center allows Kane to play with more speed and skill.
  • I’ve been saying this pretty much everyday, but Brandon Bollig needs to go. I don’t know that he even stepped on the ice during the entire third period of Game 3. What good is he to the team if that’s going to happen? In the meantime, you have Peter Regin and Jeremy Morin watching the game as spectators. It’s gotten to the point with Bollig where I’m starting to wonder if the front office (Stan Bowman) isn’t telling Quenneville to keep him in the lineup so that Bowman doesn’t look so bad for handing Bollig a three year extension earlier this season.
  • The Hawks’ penalty kill has to start killing off penalties. They were dominant on the PK through the first two rounds, but now they’ve allowed three powerplay goals to the Kings over the last two games.
  • The Jeff Carter line of the Kings needs to be slowed down. They have torched the Hawks this series, and it’s time Quenneville looks to shut them down. Heading into this series, the Hawks wanted to shut down the Kopitar line, which they have by matching the Toews line against them. Now it might be time to shift their focus to stopping Carter and his linemates. The only potential problem here is this: If Kane is reunited with Toews, then the Hawks lose their “shut down” line of Toews and Hossa.
  • The top line of the Hawks has been good all series, but it’s time that the other three lines quit watching and start playing as well. This series cannot be won by relying on just one line to score all of your goals.
  • Speaking of scoring, the Hawks’ powerplay cost them Game 3. They went 0-4 with the man advantage. They only have two powerplay goals on the road this postseason, which won’t get the job done. It’s time they start finding the back of the net when given the opportunity with an extra man.

Over the past 5-6 years, the Blackhawks have come up with huge win after huge win when they’ve needed it in the playoffs. Tonight calls for another one of those huge wins. If they don’t get it, then they’ll be down 3-1 and on their way out of the playoffs. They need to play a full 60 minutes in Game 4, and they need to step on the Kings’ throats once they get them in a vulnerable position in the game. Some are saying that the Hawks are simply out of gas after all the hockey they’ve played the last two years. While that may be true, if there’s one team who can find another gear and will themselves to victory, it’s the Blackhawks.

A win tonight is imperative for the Hawks.

Blackhawks – Kings thoughts

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940-couture-loganWe’re through two games of the Western Conference Final already, and things are dead-locked at one game apiece. I don’t think anyone predicted either team to come away with a sweep, and we now know that we will not get a sweep from either team. After watching the first two games between the Hawks and Kings, it is obvious that these two teams match up very well with one another, and that this series has the potential to go the distance. Both sides are doing certain things very well against the other, and both sides are trying to figure out how to stop the other from being successful in specific areas.

Here’s what has stood out to me thus far.

  • The Blackhawks had Game 2 in their back pocket, but never were able to get that all important three-goal lead. A lucky goal by LA at the end of the second period and two straight powerplays to begin the third for the Kings ultimately ended up being the difference.
  • LA is having a lot of trouble keeping up with the speed of the Blackhawks. This was far more evident in Game 2 than it was in Game 1. The Kings took a number of penalties through the first 40 minutes of Game 2 due to the fact that the Hawks were skating circles around them. This is something that will not change moving forward. The Blackhawks are the faster team, and it would appear they figured out how to use their speed effectively against the Kings. This could eventually end up winning the series for the Blackhawks if they continue to dominate the pace of the game.
  • The Kings were the far better team at the faceoff circle in Game 2, and rightfully so. They are one of the deepest teams (if not the deepest) in the NHL at the center position, and all of their centers are good at the dot. Seeing as how both the Kings and Blackhawks rely so much on puck possession in order to be successful, faceoffs could become a crucial factor in determining who wins this series.
  • LA’s powerplay is good. The Blackhawks got through the first two rounds in large part because of how good they were on the PK. Neither the Blues or the Wild had a powerplay as good as that of the Kings, and so the Hawks better adjust and find a way to slow LA’s man-advantage down. They scored two massive goals on the PP in Game 2.
  • Where are the Patricks? Both Kane and Sharp have disappeared through the first two games of the WCF. Sharp, while he hasn’t done much at all this whole postseason, has seen his scoring chances vanish this series. The same can be said for Kane, who seems to draw two or three King defenders every time he enters the offensive zone with the puck. One way to maybe try and get Kane going is to put him on a line with Jonathan Toews. The Kings can’t blanket both of those guys at the same time, meaning one should see a few more scoring chances. That would open up the opportunity to reunite the Sharp-Handzus-Hossa line that was so successful during last year’s Stanley Cup run.
  • The fourth line of the Blackhawks was phenomenal during the first two periods of Game 2, even with Bollig being on that line. Ben Smith scored the Hawks’ second goal of the game off a nice tip-pass by Bollig in the neutral zone. Moving forward, those guys are going to need to continue being effective. Now that Andrew Shaw is coming back into the lineup, that means someone needs to go. My vote is for Brandon Bollig to eat some pine and let Peter Regin play on the fourth line with Smith and Kruger. Bollig’s dumb penalty early in the third period of Game 2 might have earned him the right to watch from a sky-box.

All in all, this series is completely up for grabs at this point. I wouldn’t look into how the Blackhawks lost Game 2 too much. That was such a horrible collapse that you almost can’t count it against them. They were the victim of a couple soft penalty calls and a weird bounce/no-bounce of the puck behind Corey Crawford in the third period, all of which led to Kings’ goals. Don’t forget the Blackhawks dominated portions of Game 1 and 38 minutes of Game 2.

The Kings are a weak 3-3 at home these playoffs, and the Blackhawks have been one of the best road playoff teams over the last 5 years. I have all the confidence in the world that the Hawks can win at least one of the next two games in la la land. If they can do that, they will regain home ice advantage in the series.

Western Conference Final prediction

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After the first two rounds of the playoffs, I have correctly predicted the outcome of nine of the twelve series played. So far, New York knocking out Pittsburgh has been my biggest upset pick. Hopefully I can keep my hot streak going here.

56 vs. 940-couture-logan

So for the second year in a row, we get a Chicago-LA Western Conference Final. This is a matchup of the last two Stanley Cup winners, and many believe the winner of this series will go on and win the Cup again.

The Kings enter this series fresh off a dominating Game 7 win in Anaheim in which they beat the Ducks by a final of 6-2. I was anticipating the Kings to win that game, but not in that fashion. They are on a tear right now despite needing seven games to dispatch the Ducks. Marian Gaborik has done exactly what the Kings were praying he would do when they acquired him at the trade deadline a couple of months ago. He leads the playoffs with 9 goals, and also has 6 assists to go along with that. He also sits second in the league in points right now with 15, 4 points behind teammate Anze Kopitar. Speaking of Kopitar, this guy is playing in a different world right now. Neither Dallas or Anaheim could figure out a way to slow him down. To beat Chicago, the Kings will need those two guys to keep playing at their current pace. Besides those two, the Kings are one of the deeper teams in hockey at the forward position. They can roll four lines just about as well as anyone in the NHL, and all four of those lines have been valuable to them this postseason as the Kings are averaging the most goals per game of any team. Again, to beat the Blackhawks, they’ll need production from their depth guys. We all know the Kings are a top defensive team in the league, and they are proving that to us yet again right now. After allowing 22 goals in the first round to the Sharks, the Kings allowed just 15 to the Ducks in the second round. They rank fifth in the playoffs in GA/G, but would be higher had they not been asleep through the first 3 games of the first round against San Jose. Drew Doughty is having an excellent postseason defensively, and he is one of their most important players in the offensive zone as well. However, the Kings will need more defensemen than just Doughty to be good offensively if they want to advance. In goal, Jonathan Quick has been decent, but not outstanding like in years past. Going back to last year’s regular season and WCF, he has really struggled against the Hawks. Could Chicago already be in Quick’s head before the series even starts?

As for the Blackhawks, they knocked off the Wild in six games in the second round to get to this point, but it wasn’t easy. The Wild did what the Kings will try and do, and that is win the neutral zone and force the Hawks to play a chip-and-chase game. The Blackhawks need to figure out how to be more effective on the forecheck after chipping pucks into the offensive zone than they were against Minnesota. If they can find a way to use their speed against the Kings and put LA on their heels, that would be ideal for Chicago. To do that, Kane and Toews will need to lead the way yet again. However, without more production from guys like Hossa, Sharp, Saad, and the depth guys, Chicago could find themselves in trouble. They are hoping to get Andrew Shaw back at some point during this series, and they’ll need him. His physical and pesty presence on the ice is key in the playoffs, not to mention his ability to screen goalies on the powerplay. One thing that the Blackhawks absolutely need to do better this series than in the first two is taking less penalties. The Kings can be a dangerous team with the man advantage, so the Hawks won’t want to test them too often. Having said that, the Blackhawks’ penalty kill has been outstanding thus far. They lead the playoffs with a 91.3 penalty kill percentage, and now is not the time for that trend to change. A big reason for that number is the play of Corey Crawford through the first two rounds. Your goalie is your most important man on the PK, and Crawford has come up huge time and time again for the Hawks while shorthanded. This postseason, Crawford has the best save percentage and goals against average of any goalie in the league. While most people will be focusing on Quick this series (as usual), it is Crawford who has actually been the better goalie for the second postseason in a row. He’ll need the help of his defensemen against LA, and so Keith, Seabrook, Hjalmarsson, and Oduya will need to be really good to beat the Kings. How well the pairing of Hjalmarsson and Oduya plays could determine how this series pans out.

This is not the same Kings team that lost to the Blackhawks in 5 games during last year’s Western Conference Final. They are healthy now and have more firepower than they did a year ago. That said, I still don’t think the Blackhawks have played their best game(s) yet. They didn’t really come close to doing so against the Wild, yet still won that series in six games. I’d anticipate the Hawks to take their game to the next level now, and it’ll be on the Kings to try and stop them. If they do, or if the Blackhawks run out of gas after all the hockey they’ve played the last two years, LA will advance. If Chicago does begin to play their game and find some new energy, it’ll be them going on to their second straight Stanley Cup Final.

This should be a good one.

-Chicago wins series, 4-2.

 

Eastern Conference Final prediction

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So, how many people predicted THIS matchup for the ECF? I don’t think many people saw an Eastern Conference Final series that did not include either Boston and/or Pittsburgh. I did predict prior to the second round that the Rangers would upset the Penguins, and I also said the Bruins would eliminate the Canadiens in seven games, but that I had very little confidence in picking Boston. So I almost got it right….almost.

Let’s get to it.

si34dm1f9jex9eoexq9l1svqk vs. 144

An “all Original Six” series is never a bad thing, and I don’t anticipate this one to be any different. The Rangers come into this series with a ton of confidence and momentum after storming back from a 3-1 series deficit to knock out Crosby and Malkin (I must admit that I was quite happy with that outcome). Henrik Lundqvist has continued to do what he does best, and that is keep the puck out of his net as well as anyone in the game. He ranks second this postseason in GAA and Save %. Only Corey Crawford has better numbers in those categories. Offensively, the Rangers are by far the worst team at scoring goals of any of the four teams remaining in the playoffs. They are averaging just 2.43 goals per game. While Rick Nash is still searching for his first goal of the playoffs, that’s not to say the rest of the Ranger forwards have been much better. The highest point total this postseason of any Ranger is 9 by Brad Richards. To compare, the Kings have four players with at least 11. New York absolutely has to step it up offensively if they want to advance, especially considering the fact that they’ll be going up against Carey Price. However, to neutralize their weak offense, the Rangers have the lowest GAA average in these playoffs. The phrase goes something like “defense wins championships,” so hopefully for New York’s sake that phrase will prove to be true. I think the keys for New York in this series will be slowing down PK Subban, who leads Montreal in points, and getting production from their third and fourth lines.

Montreal also comes into this series riding a huge wave of momentum after eliminating the President’s Trophy-winning Bruins in seven games. A surprising number of people actually picked the Canadiens to win that series, and sure enough here we are. How did the Habs do it? Well, they got some great goaltending from Carey Price throughout those seven games, their forechecking was relentless, their determination was through the roof, and they simply played with confidence. Those four things combine to make a great recipe for success (maybe something the Penguins might want to try in the future). PK Subban took his game to a totally new level against Boston and was undoubtedly Montreal’s MVP of that series. I doubt he’ll be able to play that same way this entire series against New York, so guys like Markov and Emelin are going to have to pick up their games even more. In goal, Carey Price has been stellar with 2.15 GAA and a .926 save %. Want an interesting and telling stat? Over the last six games that Price has started against New York, he has recorded FIVE shutouts and allowed just one goal total. Take a second to try and comprehend that… On offense, the Canadiens lead the playoffs by averaging 3.27 goals per game. Similar to the Rangers, their leading scorer, Subban, has 12 points in the playoffs, but he is the only guy in double digits. The next closest point total to Subban is 9, shared by Eller and Gallagher. The Canadiens cannot rely on PK Subban to carry their offense anymore. They need their top forwards (Vanek, Pacioretty) to take the lead on the offensive side. If they can get more offense from their top lines, as well as their bottom two lines, they’ll be in good shape. The key is just finding a way to get pucks past Lundqvist.

I think this should be a great series. A lot of people think that the passing of Martin St. Louis’ mother helped propel the Rangers to their comeback over Pittsburgh. Whether or not that is true, they are playing great hockey right now, but so is Montreal. It takes a hell of an effort to beat the President’s Trophy winner in a seven-game series, but the Habs did it. Both teams have incredible home-ice advantages, so winning on the road in this series will be huge. Much like the matchups in the second round, the outcome of this one is tough to determine.

-Montreal wins series, 4-2.

I’ll be back with my Blackhawks-Kings prediction sometime before the first puck-drop of that series.

Quick thoughts after Blackhawks’ Game 4 loss

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130107_gq_trout_aThis has to be the lowest point of the entire season for the Blackhawks. After going up 2-0 on Minnesota in this second round series, the Hawks dropped both games 3 and 4 in St. Paul and looked absolutely horrible in doing so. If you really sit back and think about it, the Blackhawks didn’t even look good in either of the first two games of the series in Chicago. The Wild outplayed the Hawks in both games, but couldn’t find the back of the net often enough to win. Most people thought the Hawks would win this series (I thought in 5 games), but now it looks like this could be a potential upset.

Here’s what’s on my mind following these last two losses:

  • Where is the energy from the Hawks? This entire series, the Blackhawks have looked less than interested in playing hockey, while the Wild are out there busting their butts doing whatever they can to win each night. If you think back to last year’s first round series with the Wild, the Hawks looked very lethargic there as well. The only difference this time around is that the Wild are a much better team than they were a year ago, and the Blackhawks can’t get away with putting in half their effort each game.
  • What in the world is going on with Quenneville and his line combinations? After losing Game 3, he decided to drastically switch up the lines for Game 4 (Bickell-Toews-Smith, Saad-Kruger-Kane, Sharp-Handzus-Hossa, Morin-Nordstrom-Bollig). Those lines lasted almost 7 minutes in Game 4 before Quenneville decided it was time to switch up the line combos every 5 minutes. He literally did not give any line except the second line a chance to develop chemistry or to be successful. How are these players supposed to feel comfortable out on the ice in hostile territory when they are hopping over the boards with two new linemates every shift? It makes no sense to me. It would appear that Quenneville hit the panic button early in Game 4 and never took his finger back off of it.
  • Speaking of line combinations, I would give anything in the world to find out why Brandon Bollig is STILL in the lineup, let alone professional hockey. What good has TampaBayLightning_LOGOthis guy done at any point this season? He is god awful offensively, he is a reliability on defense, and he has seen less than five minutes of ice time per game this postseason. Why the hell even play a guy who won’t be on the ice for more than four and a half minutes per game? Then when he IS on the ice, he goes and takes absolutely HORRIBLE penalties like he did in Game 4 when he illegally checked Keith Ballard into the glass from behind, thus putting the Hawks on the penalty kill (Bollig had a hearing with the NHL today regarding that hit. I would gladly accept a 15-game suspension for him just to force Quenneville to take him out of the lineup). When you have guys like Peter Regin, Jeremy Morin, and/or Kris Versteeg being scratched each night while Brandon Bollig plays less than five worthless minutes of hockey, one can only wonder what is going through the mind of Joel Quenneville. Think about it. With a healthy lineup, doesn’t a fourth line of Morin-Regin/Handzus-Versteeg sound A LOT better than Versteeg/Morin-Handzus-Bollig? And the Corsi numbers (via extraskater.com) back this up.
  • The Blackhawks top players (Toews, Kane, Hossa, Sharp) need to step up and start carrying this team again. Sharp scored in Game 4, and Hossa really hasn’t been bad this whole postseason, but Kane and Toews especially need to get going again. Game 4 was arguably Toews’ worst playoff performance of his career (granted he had new linemates every other shift), and he needs to pick it up starting with Game 5.
  • Corey Crawford had been outstanding this postseason until Game 4 the other night when he allowed at least two horrible goals in the second period. He can’t let his Game 4 performance affect his confidence moving forward.
  • Michal Rozsival was putrid in Game 4 against the Wild, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Sheldon Brookbank return to the lineup in Rozsival’s spot for Game 5. Brookbank has played four games this postseason, and he really hasn’t been bad in any of them.

I could continue to go on and on, but those are the major things I wanted to mention. The bottom line is that the Blackhawks need to find their energy again and their desire to win, or else the Wild will no doubt pull off the upset here. This is now a best of three series with the Hawks holding home ice advantage, and while they haven’t played well this entire series, I still think they’ll advance to the next round.

NHL Conference Semifinals predictions

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That was a pretty excellent first round if you ask me. Tons of overtimes, three Game 7’s, what more could you ask for? As it turns out, I correctly predicted the winner in six of the eight first round series. My only hiccups were the Wild beating the Avalanche, and the Kings beating the Sharks. Although San Jose really should have won that series… You’re up 3-0 in the series and you lose four straight? There’s a reason this was only the fourth time that’s ever happened in NHL history: because it’s hard to do.

On to the predictions.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

ANAHEIM_DUCKS_LOGO vs. 940-couture-logan

This has all the makings of a very intense, very physical, and very heated second round series. Southern California is well represented here, with these two teams separated by just over 30 miles. The Kings come into the second round as winners of their last four games, all while facing elimination. They were just the fourth team in NHL history to come back and win a series after falling down 3-0 after the first three games. This is a team with incredible confidence and resiliency right now, and I would not want to be their next opponent. In the first round against the Sharks, LA looked rather horrible through the first three games as they allowed 16 goals against during that span. It’s actually hard to allow that many goals in just three games, but they found a way to do it. Jonathan Quick did not look like his usual self, and neither did the rest of the Kings players. From Game 4 on, however, they became a different team. In the final four games against San Jose (all victories), Quick and the Kings only gave up 5 goals. That as well is hard to do. Yet, they did it. The Kings were one of the top defensive teams all season long, and they proved this again in their four wins over the Sharks. Jonathan Quick seems to have rounded back into form, the offense has picked up its pace, and the defense is back to its elite level of play. LA is a complete and physical team right now, and one that I would want no part of.

As for the Ducks, they had a tougher time handling the Stars than I think most people expected. After winning the first two games of the series at home, Anaheim went on to lose the next two in Dallas. From there, the Ducks won the next two games and the series, but it wasn’t without some struggle. Goalie Frederik Andersen allowed 3.40 goals per game against the Stars, which was good for third worst of any goalie in the first round. No goalie that advanced had a worse GAA. This has to be worrisome for the Ducks, but you can’t put all of the blame on Andersen. As a team, the Ducks were not good defensively against the Stars. Stephane Robidas suffered his second broken leg of the season early in the series with Dallas, and his loss on the blue line did nothing but hurt the Ducks the remainder of that series. Robidas is obviously out for the remainder of the postseason, so Anaheim will have to find a way to be successful in their own end without him. One thing that the Ducks do have going for them in their offense. They finished the first round averaging 3.33 goals per game, which was good for fourth place in the opening round. Ryan Getzlaf ended the series with 3 goals and 4 assists, while Corey Perry finished with 2 goals and 5 assists. Against LA, the Ducks will need their top guys to continue being their top guys. That doesn’t mean that they won’t need production from their depth players, because they definitely will.

This is sure to be a fun series to watch and a competitive one. Given the way both teams ended the first round, I’ve got to give the edge to the Kings in this series even though the Ducks had their number during the regular season. LA is an experienced team with exceptional goaltending and defense, and in the playoffs, it’s those two things that win championships.

-Los Angeles wins series, 4-2.

56 vs. Minnesota-Wild-Wallpaper-

This will be a rematch of last year’s Western Conference Quarterfinals series as the Blackhawks and Wild both pulled off an “upset” to advance to the second round. While I personally wouldn’t consider the Hawks’ victory to be an upset, the Wild eliminating the Avalanche was definitely an upset. Who outside the state of Minnesota saw that one coming? The Wild lost the first two games in Denver, but bounced back on home ice to even the series at 2 games apiece heading into Game 5. Colorado defended home ice in the fifth game, and the Wild did the same in Game 6. Then came Game 7, and what a game it was. What the Wild showed me throughout the first round is that they do NOT give up on any game. Regardless of the situation, they are going to continue coming at you with all they’ve got until the whistle blows. Darcy Kuemper definitely did his part in helping the Wild advance, as he posted a 2.03 GAA before leaving Game 7 in the third period due to injury. It would appear he will be good to go for Game 1 in Chicago, but his condition is something to keep an eye on. Offensively, the Wild actually hung in there with the Avs. Minnesota’s biggest problem during the regular season was their inability to score at times, but they were able to put that past them in Round 1. Zach Parise ended the first round tied for the league lead in points with 10 (3G, 7A), while the next closest Wild player to him finished with 6 points. Defensively as a team, the Wild were not great against Colorado, and they will really need to be better in that area if they want any chance to beat Chicago.

The Blackhawks are coming into the second round with a ton of momentum and confidence after their victory over the Blues. St. Louis took each of the first two games of the series (both in overtime and on home ice), but that was all they’d get. The Blackhawks went on to win four straight games to finish off the Blues in 6, making this the second year in a row that the defending champions have gone down 0-2 in Round 1 to the Blues only to win next the four games and advance. The Blackhawks finished the first round ranked third in GA/G, and fifth in G/G. As the series against St. Louis progressed, you could see Chicago gaining more and more confidence and begin playing with that same mentality and attitude that won them the Cup just a year ago. After allowing St. Louis to really dictate how both of the first two games were played (and even most of the third), the Blackhawks were able to get back to playing their game and controlled the puck for much of the last four games of the series. Corey Crawford was phenomenal for most of the series, and he single-handedly won the Hawks Game 3 by shutting out the Blues. Crawford should have been the Conn Smythe winner last season, and the Hawks will need him to keep playing this way from here on out. Duncan Keith played what may have been his best game ever in Game 6, and his domination on the Hawks’ back end has been, and will continue to be huge moving forward. Offensively, Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews led the charge in Round 1 for Chicago as usual. The big thing for the Hawks will be getting more production from their third and fourth lines.

I think the Wild may have burned up all their energy taking out the Avs in the first round, and if they didn’t, I still don’t think they’ll have enough left to beat Chicago. The Blackhawks are as experienced a team as you’ll find in the playoffs, and they know how to win playoff games. With the Hawks really coming into their own over their last four games, I don’t see them being stopped at the moment.

-Chicago wins series, 4-1.

EASTERN CONFERENCE

Boston_Bruins_logo vs. si34dm1f9jex9eoexq9l1svqk

I love this matchup. Montreal won the season series over Boston 3-1, and seems to give the Bruins more trouble than any team in the East. After sweeping the Lightning in the first round, the Canadiens will enter this series with plenty of rest under their belts and a ton of momentum on their side. Danny Briere was back to playing like his usual playoff-self against Tampa, and the Canadiens are going to need him to keep it up against Boston. Carey Price, who led Canada to the Olympic gold medal this past winter, was good in net during the four games against the Lightning, but there is room for improvement. To me, he is the key to this series for the Canadiens. If Price plays really well, like he is more than capable of doing, I think Montreal will give Boston a good run for their money. Other than Price, the Montreal defense will need to be stellar. They allowed 2.50 goals per game against the Lightning, and if they can do that against Boston, they’ll have a good shot at winning. On offense, the Canadiens finished the first round averaging 4 goals per game, which will not continue. The Bruins are as good a team as you will find defensively, so the Canadiens will have to really use their speed to their advantage to try and catch Boston off guard. Forechecking will play a huge role in this matchup.

The Bruins come into the second round after winning four straight over Detroit. The Wings took Game 1 in Boston, but that was it. Boston’s defense strangled the Red Wings in Round 1 and looked like the best defense in the league. Tuuka Rask enters the second round with the lowest GAA of any goalie, and the Bruins as a team enter the second round with the lowest GA/G average (1.20). I don’t see Boston putting up those same defensive numbers against the Canadiens, but it’s possible for them to do something similar. That’s just how good they are on defense, both their defensemen and forwards. Aside from their defensive ability to completely shut an opponent down, Boston can also be the most physical team in the league. They generate a ton of momentum from their physical play, which will probably be taken to a new level against their hated rivals from Montreal. While the Bruins didn’t do a whole lot on offense against Detroit, the potential is still there for them to be one of the league’s most potent offenses.

I know I didn’t have too much to say about Boston, but that’s just a testament to how good they are. Having said that, I believe that if there’s one team in the East who could eliminate the Bruins, it’s Montreal. The Bell Centre in Montreal is one of the toughest buildings to play in for opponents, and the Canadiens have really had the Bruins’ number this whole season. Still, however, I cannot pick against Boston without feeling like an idiot if they were to end up winning. So, I’ll say the Bruins win this series, but not with a whole lot of confidence.

-Boston wins series, 4-3.

174 vs. 144

Both of these teams enter the second round coming off of a physically taxing first round series. For Pittsburgh, they were roughed up and pushed to their limit by the Blue Jackets, while the Rangers are coming into this series fresh off a Game 7 victory over their hated rivals from Philadelphia. The Rangers ranked 12th in goals per game in the first round, and second in GA/G. Their offense was never their strong point this season, and it would appear nothing has changed now that the postseason is underway. Henrik Lundqvist allowed the Flyers just a meager 2.11 goals per game in the first round, and he’ll need to continue being himself against a very lethal Penguins offense and powerplay. Defensively, the Rangers are one of the better teams in the Eastern Conference. Ryan McDonagh and Dan Girardi are going to have their hands full going against the Crosby and Malkin lines, respectively. For the Rangers to win this series, they’ll need their depth players to be better than those of the Penguins. Brad Richards needs to elevate his game and provide some much needed offense for New York.

The Penguins did not look good against Columbus in the first round. You could tell they were bothered/distracted by the Jackets’ physicality, and they also lacked confidence at times, which is never good. A big reason for their lack of confidence was yet again due to the sub-par performance by their goalie, Marc-Andre Fleury. Fleury, as well all know by now, has a history of choking in the playoffs. He might have a good round or two, but at some point he always seems to lose it and cost his team. When you are a team playing in front of a shaky goaltender, like Pittsburgh, you are put under that much more stress to play mistake-free hockey. Trying to play mistake-free hockey is a bad idea and never ends well. For the Penguins to have any further success this postseason, Fleury needs to improve his game and show his teammates that he can be trusted in net. Aside from him, Sidney Crosby needs to get going as well. He was held scoreless by the Blue Jackets in round one, and you get the feeling that Pittsburgh can’t go much longer without their captain producing. As of right now, the top two guys in points on the Penguins are Paul Martin and Matt Niskanen, both with 8 points, and both defensemen. You cannot rely on your d-men to carry your team offensively, so the Penguins will need Crosby, Malkin, Kunitz, etc. to be a lot better from beginning to end against New York.

I think this series could go the distance. It’ll all eventually come down to goaltending, in which case I’ve got to give the advantage to New York. Marc-Andre Fleury has not been good in any recent postseasons, and he wasn’t good again in Round 1. Even though the Rangers’ offense has the potential to come up dry every now and then, the play of Fleury, or lack thereof, is what could keep them in this series. As long as Lundqvist himself is good, I like the Rangers to pull off the upset.

-New York wins series, 4-2.